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我在前年消失的媒体中留了个问题:媒体会消失吗?

最近写文章,总是不经意用“过去几年”、“几年以前”的词语来修饰,好像我一瞬间变得喜欢怀旧了,后来我一想,其实不是我怀旧了,而是那些旧的又回来了,历史不只是惊人地相似,历史其实总是在重复,难怪先贤们总用车轮来形容历史。

拿新媒体来说吧,博客带着新媒体的王冠出场的时候,一些人狂热地认为,很快当时的霸主门户们很快就会倒台,互联网的天将是bloger的天,之后门户并没有像他们预期的那样快速衰退,几年之后,门户网站确实失去了当初的光环,但让门户失宠的不是博客,也不是更牛的资讯类网站,而是电子商务、游戏、视频… 那些在博客、微博、微信快速发展时忙不迭地给封神的人们,他们真的找到了救世主吗?

如果沿着互联网热点前后发展的脉络,博客、微博、微信…能找出媒体发展的脉络吗?不能!当然,有人会说能,因为他们相信自媒体(有关自媒体的由来移步>>)。

博客时,自媒体的大门就已经开启,每一个个体的人,只要注册了博客帐号,就可以随时随地向全世界发布消息,人们的表达热情得到了空前的释放,但这是一个“人人是编辑、个个是记者”的时代吗?显然不是,没有博客帐号一般人当然发不了文章,有了账号,没有写作能力的人还是没法发文章,就象笔不普及人们写不了字,笔普及了不会写的人依然不会写一样,脑袋一热,本来简单的道理也变得难以理解。

博客被门户收编之后,很快淹没在互联网的大潮之中,那些磨刀霍霍准备练笔的人们很快散去,不久,微博起来了,给了那些本不想写字的人更充分的理由,纷纷转战微博140个字的口水战。

博客一开始被认为是要取代新闻门户的,但现实情况是,博客对于门户网站来说是一种充实,让新闻更有价值;微博一出现,看上去是一个吐口水的社区,直接看并不觉得会影响多少门户新闻,但现实的情况是,微博对门户网站形态的影响是不可逆的,新闻首页名存实亡,许多人开始习惯在微博的转发中看新闻。

说到首页,首页是媒体的入口,是网络媒体价值的核心支柱“正文页、首页”之一。传统平面媒体的价值在于两方面:内容、渠道网媒与此相比较正文页是内容,首页是渠道

现在知道了为什么Tumblr能让博客变得有些轻了,自然,微博也给自媒体带来了第二次狂想,如果说博客开启了自媒体的内容,那么微博则开启了自媒体的渠道,草根大号玉指轻弹就能影响百千万人,但是现在,微博已经进入稳定发展阶段,你见到有媒体价值的自媒体了吗?

曾经有位老师问学画的骚年:“世界上什么最好画?”学生回答鸡蛋、圆圈都被一一否定,老师的答案是“鬼”,因为世界上没有人见过鬼,你画出什么什么都可以是鬼。自媒体也像画鬼一样,只不过,许多时候说着自媒体的话却想干着媒体的事儿,甚至要革一下媒体的命,那就是另一回事儿了。

你真的认为,一个杂志社的杂志发卖出去、办个微博账号不温不火,然后,人一散伙,各自开一个微博账号,再把工资一停,就能把杂志社神话成一堆名叫自媒体的“新”媒体了?反正我不信。作为媒体,内容、渠道是两个必要要素,微博为每个人提供了新的渠道能力,但据此认为人们就此回到单兵作战没有社会协作的时代,认为人越少渠道能力会越强,博客已经实证了普通人依然不具备内容创作能力,微博也将实证个体人不具备渠道组织能力

当然,有人会拿一些“成功”的个案来说事儿,那些能抓住个案能力的人,他们在体系内也不会差,而机遇的偶然性,都是赌。

还会有人说,我们说的是微信,微信自媒体!好吧,话题进入自媒体第三波浪潮,微信公众账号来了,人们开始重新拿着文章冲向微信再博自媒体了。对于普通人,微信是个好用的工具,对于许多互联网观光团成员,微信也可能是个事业机会,但需要去把握。

那里内容、渠道都齐了,自媒体应该成了吧,如果你说的自媒体是有媒体价值的自媒体,恐怕还会失望,媒体之所以成为媒体还需要具有看门人的作用。

内容、渠道、看门人,在传统媒体越来越日薄西山的时候,分家单干是出路吗?在越来越扁平的互联网上,好像一切都碎片化了、散了,专家们正试图用社交化的概念抹去个体的社会特征,事实上,传统的社会结构正在消失,但社会协作并没有减弱或者消失,而是在加强,只不过社会关系形式发生了变化,从固定形式变得更加灵活。

更让人担心的还不是这些,扁平化的互联网让社会协作链条变得越来越短,社会正在进入媒介即是行动时代,媒体正在离开社会生活的中心。


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