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2013年1月15日,马化腾宣布微信的用户数量突破三亿,从2011年1月21日推出,微信用了两年的时间,吸引近一半的中国移动互联网用户。

马化腾在最近接受的采访中承认,微信商业化的第一步,将实践海外同行与业界的“共识”,即推出移动社交与游戏方面的增值服务。目前,腾讯“正在紧锣密鼓地研发”,等到体验比较好的时候才会放出。

是的,又是游戏!

从上线公众帐号,发布营销平台,再到力推二维码,拓展O2O,微信的商业化尝试就已经开始了,但是这些尝试的效果都有限,或因产品属性的制约,或是需要长期的耕耘。总之,短期内,微信的商业化进程缓慢。只有移动游戏,是最成熟的商业模式。

在亚洲有两个与微信非常相似的产品——日本的Line,韩国的Kakao,都因为游戏而实现了盈利,再联想到腾讯的娱乐基因,微信进入移动游戏领域,便是顺理成章了。时间点可能就在2013年,此前,触控的创始人陈昊芝更是预计:微信游戏平台的收入在三个月之内就可以达到5亿元到10亿元。

行业内的研发厂商们对于微信游戏平台可谓翘首以盼。那么,微信的游戏平台上线之后,对于腾讯的移动互联网业务,对于中国的移动游戏产业,将会产生哪些影响呢?我们今天不妨在这里大胆猜想一下。如有不同意见,欢迎讨论。

猜想一:产品方面,微信将侧重于休闲类型游戏。目前中国移动网络游戏的主要收费模式,还是与传统客户端游戏相同——游戏内道具收费,以RPG类型为主。这显然对智能终端的新科技(如NFC、LBS、重力感应、多点触控等等)的应用不多,换句话说,玩家们玩的移动网游,其实是换到移动端的客户端游戏。话虽如此,在中国用户不会为游戏下载付费的情况下,游戏厂商们的如此做法也实属无奈之举,而对营收的压力,只有如此。

谁能打破这条铁律呢?看来只有拿到第一张移动互联网船票的微信莫属了:手握三亿强交互关系的用户资源,只做一个流量引导的移动游戏下载商店,那岂不是暴殄天物?休闲类型游戏在用户的交互方面,更适合微信游戏平台,因为中国人的“零和博弈”心理,在商业模式上的拓展也更加容易。

大胆预测,微信游戏平台上线之后,中国移动游戏行业的玩法可能出现巨大变化,很可能有新的商业模式被创造出来。

猜想二:在运维方面,微信的许多拓展插件,可以完整运用到移动游戏上面。如附近的人,摇一摇,漂流瓶等等,在微信的发展的初期,贡献了巨大的能量,这些很成熟的运作模式,可以完整的平移到移动游戏平台之上。试想一下,你只消一键就可以找到同一个楼层内与你玩同一游戏的TA,你们可以合作通关,并将合作的成果炫耀出来,这对一众屌丝来说,该是怎样的吸引力哦。

猜想三:微信的内容推广潜力将被极大的挖掘出来。对微信内的3亿用户充分挖掘,诸如,你可以看到你关注的明星在玩XX游戏,你的好友在XX游戏排行榜的第几位……游戏的公众帐号下将聚集相当数量的玩家,开发都可以直接听到他们的反馈。游戏的开发者、运营人员、玩家被整合到一个平台当中,他们将在一定程度上形成社交关系,这对增强游戏的粘性,完善游戏更新、运营都有很大的帮助。

在某种程度上说,这盘活了微信的营销平台。

此外,YY在PC端的模式,是可以被微信复制到移动端并发扬光大的,而且是在社交关系强于前者的情况下。

猜想四:财付通将被放在重要位置,并完成产业链上的最后一环。不可否认,运营商的计费通道依然是今天最稳定的移动支付方式,但是随着移动互联网的推进,移动支付的发展,尤其是腾讯利用自身的优势,将微信与财付通进行有效的整合,可以提供一个媲美运营商的稳定、安全的支付通道,这将在很大程度上得到用户的认可。对微信的移动电商平台的发展,也是大有裨益的。

猜想五:全产业环节的覆盖将为腾讯创造一个完整的生态体系。更重要的意义还在于,纵观移动游戏的研发、运营、推广、支付、用户数据挖掘,都可以在微信的游戏平台一站式完成,这很可能为腾讯创造一个移动游戏的完整生态系统,一旦附着其平台的用户使用习惯形成,这其中的想象空间巨大。在产业链的每一个环节,微信都可以尝试开放:比如接入其他支付平台;比如提供更多的产品,K歌、美图、电商……到那时,腾讯的第四大运营商将当之无愧。

猜想六:动作要快,抓住女性用户。为什么要抓女性用户?就休闲游戏的属性来说,休闲游戏更能得到女性用户的青睐,虽然她们在游戏方面的消费有限(那是传统的游戏类型),如若合理的引导,激发她们的付费冲动,相信女用户们的付费能量还是会很可观的(如果让她们像买衣服一样买道具的话)。

网络游戏无疑是腾讯在过去十年发展中的一大功臣,微信移动游戏平台的成功运营,很可能为腾讯创造下一个高速发展的十年,属于移动互联网的十年。


586条评论

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  3. Line是韩国NEVER公司的产品,kakao也是韩国的,只是在日本市场有50%由日本雅虎出资。日本的应该是Dena公司推出的Comm。

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