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外电最近报道,阿里巴巴集团将向包括花旗、瑞士信贷、汇丰、摩根大通、摩根士丹利在内的9家银行贷款最多80亿美元,其中约40亿美元贷款将用于偿还去年的贷款(这笔贷款当时用来进行B2B私有化以及回购雅虎持有的股份)。其余贷款将用于企业一般用途。

而近期在国内,关于阿里巴巴的收购传闻又非常多,仅仅这一段时间以来,业内传出消息的收购投资对象就包括友盟、墨迹天气、丁丁优惠、新浪微博等。马云在香港的一个会议上也表示,阿里在移动互联网领域的一个战略举措就是要进行并购。

又是贷款,又是移动领域收购,就有一些传言出来说,阿里的资金很短缺,所以需要贷款还债,还要在年内上市;而收购,也自然被解读为拉高估值的举动。

具体何时上市,淼叔不知道。不过根据公开资料看,阿里巴巴是肯定不缺钱的。我们可以大概算一下。

严格来说,阿里的B2B业务去年在香港退市后,已经没有公布信息披露的义务,因为它没有一块资产是在公开市场上的。庆幸的是,阿里巴巴的股东之一美国雅虎是上市公司,必须要定期披露阿里集团相关的财务数据,这也就给我们了解阿里巴巴的财务数据提供了一个确切的证据。

与腾讯百度比比

从雅虎公开的2012年3季度财报中,我们可以查到阿里巴巴集团流动资产为40.62亿美金(截至2012年9月30日),且已经扣除当年9月用于回购雅虎股权的63亿美金现金对价和一次性支付雅虎技术和知识产权许可费5.5亿美元。

也就是说,截止到2012年9月30日,阿里集团手里可以变现的流动资产是40.62亿美金。这些流动资产中,有多少是现金、现金等价物呢?

我们可以用BAT三大巨头的另外两家来做对比,公开财报数据显示,截至2012年12月31日,百度持有的现金及现金等价物为人民币324.85亿元(约合52.14亿美元),流动资产为人民币346.74亿元(约合55.66亿美元),现金及现金等价物占流动资产比例高达93.69%;腾讯持有现金及现金等价物净额为271.89亿元(约合43.26亿美元),流动资产为人民币365.09亿元,现金及现金等价物占流动资产比例为74.47%。

按照这个区间来粗略估算,截至2012年9月30日,阿里集团手里可以支配的现金,应该也在流动资产的70%到90%之间,即处于28亿~36亿美元的区间。再考虑2012年第四季度营收,阿里集团的现金储备状况和百度、腾讯相差无几。

另一个可以作为佐证的是,2012年9月18日,阿里巴巴集团宣布完成对雅虎76亿美金的股份回购计划时,曾经披露过,交易完成后,集团的现金储备为30亿美元。

业务增速正常,2013年Q1增加的现金流不少于10.7亿美元

但截至目前,雅虎并没有公布阿里巴巴集团在12年Q3季度之后的财务数据,虽然在这一财务周期内,阿里并没有产生明显需要大规模支出现金的科目(B2B私有化和回购雅虎用款全部为80亿美元融资)。

我们下面就可以来分析一下,阿里巴巴2012年Q4和2013年Q1这两个季度的营收状况。这个地方需要着重留意一点,从2010年开始,以淘宝和天猫为代表的平台式电商正在迎来高速发展期。阿里巴巴的业务增长速度应该起码保持正常速度。

可以作为参照的是,阿里集团2011年第四季度净利润同比大增453.9%,至2.53亿美元。按此增速推算,阿里巴巴在2012年Q4当季增加的净利润起码应该不少于14.04亿美元,按照12年9月18日现金储备为30亿美元计,截至2012年Q4,阿里巴巴集团手里拥有的现金不少于44.04亿美元。

以上还是一个保守的估计,如果考虑到电子商务领域,历年的第四季度都是增速最快、效益最好的季度。尤其是2012年Q4双十一创造了191亿元的成交额,淘宝和天猫在当季宣布全年销售额超过10000亿元。那么截至2012年Q4,阿里巴巴集团手里拥有的现金实际应该超过44.04亿美元。

(图片均出自i美股)

接下来再按照类似方法分析一下阿里集团2013年Q1的状况,同样作为参照的是,2012年Q1阿里巴巴集团净利润同比增长355.6%,按此增速推算,阿里集团在2013年Q1增加的现金流不少于10.7亿美元。

有些人可能会有疑问,阿里巴巴在最近的这两个季度的利润增速都是按照同比增加3.5甚至4.5倍来计算,这个增速靠谱吗?实际上,整个电子商务大趋势自2011年开始发力,2012年进入爆发期,随着淘宝平台的广告收入大增长和天猫平台的交易费模式稳定下来,阿里巴巴的这个增速至少在这两年内是可以持续的。

所以说,粗略估算,截至2013年3月,阿里巴巴集团的现金储备应不低于54.7亿美元。

所以有投行在报告里说,基于清晰的商业模式及阿里巴巴的业务带来的强有力的现金流,阿里巴巴集团将有雄厚的资金,支持公司的战略发展。

阿里不缺钱,假如按照马云所说要通过并购来实现其无线战略布局的话,手里持有超过50亿美元以上现金的阿里巴巴,又会跟谁发生“绯闻”呢?反正按照李开复的观点,阿里、百度这种巨头展开活跃的并购,对整个行业来说,是件好事。

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802条评论

  1. 阿里巴巴怎会缺钱呢?

  2. 这么多钱做啥都可以了。

  3. 手握50亿美刀!

  4. 阿里巴巴把新浪收了吧

  5. 欠的钱更多

  6. 阿里真的是有钱啊
    不晓得他杂用

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