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文/《福布斯》中文版副主编 尹生

从今年8月份传出投资陌陌(已经被陌陌创始人唐岩否认),到最近这几天传出购得新浪微博15~20%的股份,市场上一直对阿里巴巴这家中国乃至全球最大的电子商务公司与社交网络的关系,抱着极大、甚至不切实际的热情,并倾向于对其意义进行人为的拔高。

比如,典型的论调是,阿里巴巴将借机重新在社交网络发力,从而成为改变社交网络格局的重要力量,并极大改变阿里巴巴帝国的势力范围。而这一论调往往又与阿里巴巴创始人马云历史上显而易见的社交网络情结遥相呼应,在过去的数年间,他曾领导阿里巴巴在社交网络进行多次尝试,比如淘江湖和口碑网。

不过,遗憾的是,在电子商务领域所向披靡的马云,在社交网络似乎始终没有找到感觉。而实际上,这与马云和阿里巴巴的能力无关,从某种程度上,正因为阿里巴巴在电子商务领域是如此成功,才注定了它无法在社交网络获得同样的成就。

道理很简单:从用户的角度看,电子商务的最大价值是效率,即在最短的时间、以最低的成本和更好的便利性,提供更多的和更合意的选择,将用户从产生需求到满足需求的时间减到最少;相反,最出色的社交网络,总是善于让用户进入忘我的状态,将更多的时间耗费在它上面,忘记效率,也就是说,它是反效率的。

换句话说,那些最能发挥效率的能力,可能并不适合社交网络,甚至起反作用。

但这不意味着类似陌陌、新浪微博这样的投资是不明智的,恰恰相反,如果你并不刻意抬高这些投资的意义,而仅仅当作一项追求短期或长期回报的普通投资,可能更能发现其对阿里巴巴的价值。

我认为,如果阿里巴巴最终如愿以偿获得新浪微博的股份,至少能带来如下四方面的潜在收益:

1,更多的公关资源——阿里巴巴对传统媒体的掌控能力首屈一指,不过最近几年社交网络的崛起让其有些被动,虽然它可能无法控制新浪微博,且即便如此,也无法明目张胆干涉新浪微博用户的观点,但至少可以发挥一定影响,这对于这家电商巨头而言,是非常重要的。

2,阿里巴巴需要保持自己在电子商务用户和流量中的地位,而新浪微博注册用户超过3亿,考虑到用户在其上面使用大量的时间,即便出于防御的需要(避免其流向竞争对手),这项投资也是值得,何况现在新浪微博已经成为阿里巴巴旗下购物网站的重要流量来源;而从新浪微博角度看,它也需要一条可靠的套现渠道,而购物是最有潜力的渠道。

3,用户的需求千变万化,而阿里巴巴需要在不同领域增加用户的黏性,社交网络是增加黏性的最有效方式之一,而阿里巴巴在这方面并不擅长,它需要借助类似美丽说、蘑菇街、陌陌、新浪微博这样的社交网络性质的网站的力量,使其成为其生态链的一部分,而投资既有助于巩固该系统,又能使其获得不错的收益、从而抵消为流量而支付的成本。

4,一旦这成为一种风气,无疑将促进行业的分工和成熟,阿里巴巴可以擅长于自己的效率经营,而更多的中小公司也可以专注于自己的领域,不但包括类似新浪微博这样的流量经营专家,甚至可能包括那些能帮助阿里巴巴提高其效率的数据挖掘方面的专业公司。

但如果阿里巴巴最终谋求完全控制新浪微博或其他社交网络,则难以让人看好,甚至可以视为误入歧途。

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