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在去年3月份,我曾写过一篇名为《一家名叫苹果的互联网公司》的评论,其核心观点是:

为了避免这种不幸的命运降临。苹果从现在起就该加速将自己转型为一家真正的互联网公司,通过降价或推低端机型来迅速壮大用户量,或者至少加速尝试向线下服务领域的渗透,以便充分挖掘苹果高质量用户群的价值。

我所说的“不幸的命运”,是指苹果错失增加市场份额的良机,在用户厌倦了苹果产品,或者苹果产品再也不能提供现在的盈利水平时,又没有足够的用户量获得线上服务所需的规模效应,从而在与谷歌等互联网公司竞争的过程中处于不利地位。

现在,苹果通过iPad mini已经向低端迈出了第一步,而这两天关于低价iPhone的讨论已经很热烈。我的老板、福布斯中文版总编辑周健工认为,苹果CEO库克这次的访华,部分也同这有关,因为苹果要提高份额,就必须打开中国移动的大门,同时对供应链做出调整,以便适应低端iPhone的需要。

摆在苹果CEO库克面前的道路有两条:一是像三星一样,成为多元化的产品提供商,从通信、计算机,到电视,甚至不排除以智能家居的名义推出冰箱、洗衣机、消毒碗柜等产品,当物联网成为现实时,苹果做这些并不算走得太远,还可以进一步套现苹果品牌的溢价,并延伸苹果在用户端的影响。

另一条道路就是适时推出市场份额提升战略,并像我在那篇文章中说的,彻底转型互联网公司。那样一来,苹果的最大对手将不再是三星,而是亚马逊。

巧合的是,这几天苹果刚刚宣布,App Store的活跃用户量刚刚超过了5亿,下载突破400亿次。作为互联网公司的苹果,早期可以继续以虚拟产品为主打,等到未来电商生态系统进一步完善,比如社会化的物流,移动支付等,那时苹果将可以切入实体产品领域。

问题是,也许库克希望二者兼顾。从短期看,这是最保险的做法,但从长远看,可能使苹果错失最佳时机——现在正是互联网公司圈地、传统公司布局互联网的最佳发力时机。就像我在那篇文章中说的:

我并不是在提诸如“苹果已经高估”这样的老调重谈,实际上我认为苹果的股价增长可能还会持续1到2年,而是想说,如果苹果不能抓紧机会实现向互联网公司的转型,就有可能被谷歌、facebook、亚马逊这样的互联网公司抛下——虽然它一直具有领先的潜力。

互联网公司信奉的一个基本原则是用户量必须足够大,这样才能产生足够的长尾效应。谷歌就是这样做的,它的海量用户群让它建立起强大的广告业务,而现在它正将这种模式移植到android商业生态系统的建设上——通过提供丰富的终端选择和利用支持厂商的力量迅速将用户量做大,这会吸引更多的开发商入住其应用商店,而这又会反过来增加对用户的吸引力。

考虑到在过去二十年中,几乎没有一个电子品牌能够持续保持高增长和高利润率,用户价值方面的诉求会逐步趋同,产品也会同质化,用户的疯狂迟早将变为厌倦。

所以,我的预测是,如果苹果希望继续领导潮流,押宝第二条道路几乎是唯一的机会。当然,当它这样做时,并不排除向电视等更多的产品领域扩张,既套现其品牌价值,又能抢占更多潜在的用户入口(未来电视、冰箱、洗衣机等等产品都会成为用户信息互动终端)。

现在,就看库克有没有孤注一掷的胆量和决心:苹果现在最急需的不是所谓的产品创新——在乔布斯过世后,那已经成为神话,甚至即便乔布斯在世,也不一定能继续奏效——而是战略创新,是方向感。

如果方向感足够坚决,低价iPhone将把苹果带往另一个高地,库克将成为新的英雄,如果方向不坚决或执行不理想,低价iPhone将加速苹果神话的破灭,库克将成为替罪羊。


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