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在戴尔电脑公司走下神坛之前,迈克尔·戴尔是那个时代的乔布斯,从1995年引入电子商务建成完善而独特的直销模式起,到2004年急流勇退,他的一举一动就一直是那个时代的风向标,他的公司被认为似乎不可战胜的,就如同乔布斯在随后的时代所扮演的角色那样。

他通过自创的商业模式,带领戴尔公司在竞争激烈的个人电脑市场中,实现了收入和净利润的同比增长,并一度战胜惠普、IBM这些巨无霸,成为全球最大的PC厂商。就如同乔布斯通过创建iPhone+iTune模式,征服了全球,并将苹果推上全球科技业领头羊位置。

迈克尔·戴尔无疑讲述了一个资本市场最津津乐道的故事:在2001年前,戴尔公司的收入增长一直保持在20~60%,除了个别年份,净利润增长则超过50%;2002年~2006年,收入增长下降到10~20%之间,而净利润增长则在2004年之后下降到了20%以下;在2006年之前,净利润率一直高达5~8%,代表着PC业的最高水平。

戴尔公司的神话暂时并没有因为创始人的离职而破裂,相反,虽然从2004年戴尔隐退起,外界已经有人开始怀疑,后戴尔时代的戴尔公司能否继续风光,但实际上直到戴尔隐退两年之后,戴尔公司的收入和净利润率才出现明显下降,其股价在2005年才达到阶段性顶点。

两年之后,戴尔神话才真的耗尽了所有光芒,即便后来迈克尔·戴尔本人又复出了,却也未能扭转颓势。

苹果的情况何其相似:在乔布斯病逝前,苹果一直保持高速增长,和盛年期的戴尔公司一样,被认为不可战胜;在乔布斯逝世后的一年多时间里,苹果公司的收入和利润仍然保持了增长势头,其股价甚至一度比乔布斯逝世时增长了一倍。

但在最近三个季度,苹果的收入增长从之前五年的50%下降到了30%以下,最近一个季度甚至到了20%以下;净利润增长则从过去的60%以上下降到了25%以下,最近一个季度甚至接近于零。

巧合的是,戴尔公司的衰败在很大程度上与苹果的崛起有直接关系:当苹果公司的iPod广受欢迎时,戴尔公司时任CEO罗林斯拒绝承认其为时尚潮流,在消费市场,戴尔并没有意识到用户对个性化的需要,以及硬件背后的应用对用户的重要性。

同样,苹果也可能没有预计到三星的崛起会如此迅速,但那其实带有某种必然性,就像当初苹果在戴尔模式之外突然流行一样:苹果相对封闭的硬件+应用服务模式,对于早期的移动终端用户非常有吸引力,也非常重要,尤其是在智能手机领域,但在谷歌Android已成气候,应用已经实现社会化后,三星这样掌握了硬件设计、关键零部件和制造能力的公司,便有了机会。

其实,戴尔公司一直有大把的机会迎接新的潮流,比如既然它一直固守所谓的黄金三原则,即坚持直销,摒弃库存,与客户结盟,它为何不利用亚马逊等电子商务公司迅速崛起的机会(在它们之前,戴尔就已经是全球最大的电子商务网站之一),将自己从制造商和供应链管理者转向消费者电子商务?

又比如,既然它对提高效率情有独钟,而且拥有强大的供应链管理能力,为何不将其实施部门化,进而发展为独立的第三方事业,在这方面它将获得相对IBM、SAP等公司的优势,进而帮助其在商业服务领域建立自己的优势。

当它这样做时,它同样需要改变自己,分清它自己作为一家有效率的公司与向第三方提供效率解决方案的角色——显然,如果它仍然用短期效率来要求自己的运营,可能妨碍它在人才、技术等领域的投资。

即便到了现在,它仍然可以利用其在商业模式创新和供应链管理方面的优势,尝试着在C2B领域有所作为——这正是阿里巴巴这一全球最大的电子商务网站之一未来一段时间所关注的。当然,它在用户数据方面的短板需要补充,另外,它可以定位于C2B解决方案提供者的角色,以此与其他商业服务商进行差异化竞争。

最坏的结果是,在私有化后,没有了资本市场的压力,戴尔公司既失去了短期绩效的动力,又没有找到新的方向,最后一点点耗掉来之不易的现金,被其他公司所收购。在其目前试图建立优势的商业服务领域,几乎全是巨头:IBM、思科、甲骨文、微软、SAP、HP,甚至包括中国的华为。

同样,苹果也仍然有大把机会,比如抓住消费者对苹果品牌的认同,以及苹果在产品方面的优势,赶紧推出电视等其他产品,又比如尽快对App Store实施公司化运营,就像一家独立的互联网公司那样,当然,如果它这样定位,又必须利用智能手机市场最后不到两年的高速增长机会,迅速增加用户规模。

如果错过这些机会,苹果很可能的结局是,像戴尔那样,被投资者高企的预期压得喘不过气,在产品市场和互联网市场发展结构性变化之后,成为一头只能产生可观现金的老牛,就像2006年以来的戴尔,尽管它的营收增长出现了滞胀,但仍然能获得可观的盈利和现金,但资本市场已经近乎绝望——它目前的股价只有2005年时的1/3.


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