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尽管三星急匆匆地推出打上自己烙印的操作系统Tizen,很可能仅仅是一种面向谷歌的竞争压力,但它仍然有机会至少通过四种方式来阉割掉谷歌苦心设计的用户价值和商业生态系统,从而使其无法自我繁衍,而只能依赖与同三星的合作。

最近,有关三星与谷歌这一对智能手机领域同过患难的搭档可能无法共享乐的消息,已经引起了业界的广泛关注,如果消息属实,对于移动互联网领域的每个从业者,都将是至关重要的信号,因为Android是迄今唯一能与苹果的封闭系统相抗衡的移动互联网生态,而谷歌和三星的合作在其发展中起了主导性作用。

大多数的推测集中于:三星已经成为Android乃至整个智能手机市场的霸主,它在谷歌苦心培植的Android领域实际上已经一家独大,其销量是第二名的数倍,这引起了谷歌的担心,而出于对谷歌担心的担心,三星又可能进一步采取防御措施,这将进一步激化双方的矛盾。

我要说,这里提到的只是两家公司深层冲突的最表面部分:

对三星而言,作为一家在2012年 共卖出两亿多部智能手机的硬件公司(在全球智能手机领域的份额近四成),若要在智能手机市场走向成熟后避免成为下一个诺基亚,就不得不寻求从每个用户获得 更多,甚至在用户不再那么迫切需要更换手机或平板电脑时,三星仍然能从用户那里产生收入,这意味着它将从产品销售者转向用户运营者。

对谷歌而言,它多年来在Android领域扮演活雷锋的动机,正是三星即将要关心和染指的,即在一个用户使用Android手机或平板电脑时,不管这些设备是哪个厂商生产的,他或她必然会使用更多的应用和服务,而这将通过广告等方式给谷歌产生收入。

一直到目前为止,双方对彼此的需要都超过了防备:三星巨大的销量是Android与苹果竞争不可或缺的前提,同时,规模的用户产生规模的应用和广告,此外,三星会在每部Android中置入谷歌的应用,包括搜索,YouTube等,这些应用很普及,用户也乐见其成,而谷歌则拥有强大的广告系统,可以将用户的每次点击转化为现金,三星也在硬件之外,从广告中分得一定比例。

如果双方的冲突仅仅是收入分配层面,即三星会凭借其强大话语权分得更大比例的广告收入,而谷歌则可能要求对每部手机收取专利费或要求更多的专利授权费,则冲突并不会从根本上改变竞合格局,因为规模的继续增加对双方而言,都意味着可分的饼更大了。

但对谷歌而言,最糟糕的情况是,三星可能希望得到更多:从长期来看,谷歌希望继续在用户端保持其影响和优势,就像在PC互联网时代,搜索无所不在一样,但三星却可能借助硬件这个媒介,成功实现渠道化,在用户与谷歌之间占据不可逾越的一环。

就是说,谷歌将失去与这些用户的直接联系(至少是部分),它苦心设计的用户价值和商业生态系统将被阉割掉,无法流畅运转,而以此为据点,三星就可能将硬件优势进一步延伸到操作系统层面。这对谷歌而言,无异于一场噩梦。

而对三星而言,最糟糕的情况则是:谷歌会努力在自己与用户之间建立强大的关联,并降低用户对硬件品牌的忠诚,它会通过倾向性的政策支持更多的硬件厂商成长,虽然短期内这很难改变三星一家独大的局面,却可能通过价格战侵蚀三星的盈利状况和增加竞争 压力,使其没有足够的精力和实力实施战略转型,从而令其影响力仅仅停留在硬件层面。

换句话说,谷歌不希望三星成为其商业系统层面的竞争者,而只是一个合作者。按照谷歌的设计,最终用户可能会抛弃三星转投其他品牌,但却离不开谷歌设计的用户价值和商业捕捉系统。

虽然到目前,谷歌基于移动互联网的用户价值和商业生态系统还没有完全建立起来,但它仍然是最有希望的领先者(详情请参见我接下来的另一篇文章《谁最有希望取代苹果成最值钱科技公司?》)。

至于三星,尽管它通过应用预置已经象征性地具备渠道化的雏形——三星的每部Android手机已经成为一份单向传播的媒体——它仍然要借助于谷歌搭建的开发者生态系统和商业化系统,前者是用户关心的,后者是广告客户关心的。

不过只要时机和策略得当,从硬件端实现对谷歌的逆袭,并非遥不可及。至少可以列出四种途径,三星可以借以改变竞争态势,甚至实现竞争地位大逆转:

亚马逊或任天堂模式:硬件最终的利润可以接近于零,甚至是负数,公司看重的是用户规模,但同时公司必须在应用和服务方面建立起足够的价值基地和优势,就像亚马逊在电子商务和云基础架构方面所做的那样。这种模式能在用户不再购买三星手机的情况,仍然帮助三星牢牢抓住他们。

苹果模式:拥有自己的操作系统、应用商店、核心应用以及能无缝使用这些应用的、享有品牌和设计溢价的硬件产品,形成一个相对闭合的生态系统。

不过三星能成功、而诺基亚会重挫的一个重要原因,就是三星没有从一开始就企图建立一个封闭的 生态系统,而是借助在这方面更擅长的谷歌的力量,它自己则将优势放在硬件的设计、供应链管理等方面。另外,三星的品牌和设计溢价也小得多,它无法像苹果那 样在硬件和应用之间建立起一个相互促进的用户价值系统。但三星可以从更容易的应用环节入手,逐级提升。

App Store模式:Android的碎片化让三星有机会充分利用其巨大的出货量,比如它可以在每部Android上预置三星自己的应用商店,以此为基础来逐步组建自己的生态系统。

当然这远远不够,它还可以在一些关键的应用层推出自己的产品,比如浏览器,社交网络等。无论三星未来是否继续定位于硬件制造,这些投入最终都会转化为用户价值。当它这样做时,还可以充分利用韩国在移动应用和服务方面的优势,通过收购缩短时间。

软硬件一体化模式:这种模式最先在商业计算领域流行,比如SAP的HANA服务器,就是通过将底层芯片、硬件系统与数据库、中间件、应用软件进行垂直整合,来最大限度地突破软硬件潜力,借此实现用户价值的突破。

三星电子在芯片、显示屏等关键零部件,整机设计,供应链管理等方面都拥有巨大优势,而整个三星集团则在几乎所有的重要行业都有不俗的成绩,如果三星能对产品进行再定义,使其硬件产品能提供更多的功能和服务,就能在不加剧谷歌的担心下,与用户建立更多的联系。

当然,最终裁判权在用户手中,对用户而言:当你用了一部三星手机后,你会一直用它的其他手机吗?当你习惯了Android的使用体验和丰富的应用后,你会一直使用下去吗?

三星目前仍然无法让第一个问题的答案是“是”,这就意味着三星的规模优势仍然相对脆弱,只要市场上出现设计更吸引人、价格更诱人的Android产品,用户就有可能抛弃它——显然谷歌会力促这种情况发生。

第二个问题的答案比第一个要肯定得多,这决定了三星短期内无法通过一款自主的操作系统来完全取代Android,而用户的转移成本还在不断增加中,这些又进一步打击开发者的积极性。除非三星能使自己的操作系统与Android的使用体验相似,且用户能够继续使用Android丰富的应用,同时又不至于遭致谷歌的起诉,但这可能吗?

最后,也许上述四种方法中的任何一种在中短期内都无法帮助三星彻底摆脱谷歌,不过三星可以通过它们阉割掉谷歌,使谷歌的用户价值和商业生态系统不再完整,从而失去自我繁衍的能力,进而不得不更依赖于三星等合作伙伴。


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