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在过去的十年间,华为通过成功实施“农村包围城市”战略,即从经济和通信网络欠发达、对既有巨头而言不那么重要、但潜力巨大的国家和地区介入,使自己成为了中国国际化程度最高的公司之一,现在它的邻居腾讯似乎正打算步它的后尘,即通过同样的战略,帮助被其寄予厚望的微信走向全球。

根据本月初腾讯公司提供的数据,Wechat(微信的国际版本)在中国大陆以外的用户数达到了5000万,而上一次腾讯宣布达到4000万用户,是在两个月前。腾讯称这些用户主要来自东南亚、南亚和拉美国家,比如在泰国、马来西亚、印度、印尼、菲律宾、墨西哥等国,Wechat已经成为当地App Store和Google Play上下载量最高的社交类应用程序。

而这些国家,正是2003年前后华为在推进其国际化战略时最先瞄准的目标。它们不但人口众多——印度、印尼、巴基斯坦、墨西哥、巴西、菲律宾、越南,是全球为数不多的人口数接近或超过了一亿的国家,而缅甸和泰国也超过了5000万——而且,电信网络和经济实力大多欠发达,与中国在经济和政治上有传统的友谊,这些都为中国廉价的设备提供了绝佳的机会。

这样的机会之窗似乎也对Wechat敞开着。因为相比欧美发达国家市场,这些国家的智能手机普及率要低很多,通常不到20%,比如根据今年第一季度尼尔森公布的报告,美国、英国、意大利等国家的智能手机普及率都超过了50%,而拥有12亿人口的印度却只有10%。更多的潜在用户意味着更多的应用需求未被激发,而且相比那些已经形成相对成熟的需求的老用户,新用户更好打动一些。

此外,欧美市场也是Facebook、谷歌这些互联网巨头的大本营,它们也有自己类似微信的产品或计划,之前一直传言着两家公司都有意收购美国最大的类微信应用Whatsapp——在那里,类似的应用并不少见,本质上这也不是一个技术含量很高的产品,而更多地是用户价值和体验的创新,远在微信之前,就有了Kik。而在微信试图强化的社交属性方面,Facebook已经建立了强大优势,而一旦某个用户的社交关系建立起来,它的迁移成本将比较高。

同时,Wechat提供的免费短消息与语音讯息功能,会抓住新兴市场国家并不那么富裕的用户的刚需,像印度这样实现很低的电话资费模式的国家,毕竟在少数。当然,它需要面临同类应用的竞争,比如Whatsapp、Line等也瞄准了这些市场。在这方面,微信最大的优势,是它有一个实力更强大的母体:Whatsapp仍是一家独立的创业公司,主要靠风险资本支持,而Line虽然背后是韩国最大的互联网公司NHN,不过相比腾讯还是小一些,它一个季度的收入约是腾讯的四分之一。

对腾讯而言,将东南亚和南亚作为国际化的第一梯队,还有其他的好处。在PC时代,腾讯在其中的一些国家就有投资,甚至还将腾讯产品输出到这些国家,因而积累了初步的市场资源。

比如,早在2008年,腾讯就曾经购买了印度MIH环球网络公司部分股份,后者运营着几个在印度有一定知名度的门户网站,而根据《环球时报》报道,现在微信在印度的合作伙伴是Ibibo,后者持有微信印度版20%的股权,而Ibibo正是MIH环球网络的附属公司。而在泰国、越南等国,腾讯则将其QQ授权给了当地合作伙伴实施本地化,这些伙伴多是当地的重要互联网公司。

虽然腾讯并没有公开进行过类似“农村包围城市”的表述,但到目前为止它用行动证明了这一点。

比如在最近发给媒体的一篇新闻稿中,它除了提到目前最成功的国家名单——就像前文所述,主要是东南亚、南亚和拉美国家,还自豪地提到了对类似Windows Phone、Symbian、黑莓、诺基亚Asha等二三线平台的支持,以及对包括印度尼西亚语、葡萄牙语、泰语等小语种在内的近20种语言的支持。而这些二三线平台和小语种所触及的人群,通常也是最容易被既有巨头们忽视的地方。

姑且不管这一策略是有意为之,还是无意之举,微信还是可以从华为这家电信设备商身上吸取很多的经验和教训的——巧合的是,微信和华为所从事的业务,本质上都可以归类于通信领域,如果不考虑微信的社交属性的话,后者是一个在政治敏感性和运营难度方面不亚于通信服务的领域。

除了“农村包围城市”这样的有效战略,华为还为微信提供了其他经验:从产品功能层面介入,面向运营商这样的大客户进行直接销售。

具体来说,华为销售的是符合国际通行标准的通信产品,在一些领域它还是标准的参与者和制定者,这样可以减少介绍产品的成本,提高产品的吸引力,而面向运营商的销售模式则让华为将其潜在客户群缩小到几百家,实际上到后来它仅需锁定其中最强的50家,比如沃达丰的用户遍布亚非拉,而在拉美,只需抓住西班牙电信就行了。

这样一来,它就不用去建立中介渠道(这必然需要突破当地的文化障碍和更多的投资,速度上也会受到影响),并可以直接向运营商介绍产品和解决方案,这将减少沟通成本(沟通是中国企业走出去时面临的最大挑战),而那些最大的运营商业务通常都遍布多个国家和地区,这又可以进一步降低全球化的成本。

华为提供的教训则是:通信设备天然就容易被拿来与政治、安全等挂钩,而华为的神秘色彩增加了责难者的筹码;虽然“容易”被“安全”是事实,但通过充分、巧妙的沟通,仍然可以降低其可能带来的负面影响,而华为习惯于面向运营商、而非面向公众进行沟通的历史,也让它并没有充分掌握跨文化沟通的战略战术,这也是导致华为眼下被西方政府为难的部分原因。

另外,华为过于依赖价格战(虽然相比早期,已经有所减缓),容易给人以口实;虽然华为在当地有不少投资,但离建成本地化利益链和生态系统还很远,不足以提高其退出当地市场而给当地带来的损失。

在一些方面,微信已经有了不错的开局。比如,它将本地化列为核心战略,希望围绕微信建立本地化的商业化系统,鼓励当地开发者开发应用,并充分利用了微信在群聊和公共帐号方面的试验经验,将一些当地企业吸引到微信,建立其日常面向员工和客户的沟通平台。

这些做法让它可以避开国际化最难的环节——与当地文化的互动,并形成当地利益系统,还有,腾讯这些年在海外进行了大量投资,这些投资也是连入到底利益链的方式之一,未来,微信还可能按照印度模式,与更多当地企业建立资本合作。

在另一个可以降低国际化难度的捷径方面,微信也走在了正确的道路上,即与运营商展开合作。腾讯方面将与运营商的合作模式视为一项机密,但它在香港与PCCW的合作可能是一种借鉴,用户只需每月支付8港元,就可以不限流量使用微信。在很多地方,运营商也面临激烈竞争,互联网公司的冲击也被认为不可不免,而通过这样的方案既能增加用户黏性,又可以锁定部分收益。

另一种合作潜力在于推广,因为在大多数国家,运营商定制是手机销售最主要的方式,而这为应用预置提供了机会。虽然这会花掉不菲的金钱,但腾讯目前不差钱,目前腾讯在很多国家都投入大笔资金聘请当地名人做代言,广告覆盖了互联网、电视等主流媒体。据从腾讯内部了解到的信息,腾讯对于微信的国际化市场费用预算,采取的是“不封顶”的策略,即只要有需要。

在一些方面,微信还有华为不曾有的天然优势,类似App Store、Google Play这样的应用商店,使它不用走出中国,就面向一个全球性的市场。只不过微信可以这样做,其他对手也可以这样做。而且作为一款面向大众用户的应用,微信必须对各地消费者所基于的文化背景有深刻的了解。

因此,尹生(微信公号jia-zhi-xian)的建议是,在没有足够的精力去了解各地的文化和用户需求之前,最好不要急于社交网络化,而是牢牢抓住作为即时通讯工具的一面,该层面的通用性要高于社交网络。同时,这样做还可以避开同Facebook的竞争——实际上在很多地方,微信都是通过Facebook来推广的,并同Skype较好的差异化,后者的核心阵地在于实时语音通话,而微信提供的是稍有延迟的语音讯息。

除此之外,保持必要的透明性,避免价格战也是必要的。目前Whatsapp的收费是每年0.99美元,但微信则免费。作为一款通信工具,如果不能通过其他形式实现有偿使用,就有可能让运营商产生敌意,就像在中国国内遇到的那样。还有,提前进行相应的专利布局也非常重要,作为一个同类应用中的后来者,就像华为在通信设备领域一样,当它做大时,如果没有足够的专利壁垒,很可能成为专利战争的受害者。

最后,就像华为一样,微信也有自己无法主宰的命运因子——信息安全。虽然相比华为的交换机和其他网络设备,微信主要在应用层面,但二者都处于信息流通的重要环节,因而很容易成为信息安全战争的牺牲品——尤其是在发生了斯诺登事件之后。最近在印度已经有人在动议政府封杀微信,理由就是信息安全。


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