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iDoNews 小牛注:为何手游公司都在赚钱,但都要急着将自己卖出呢,显然这其中是有着很多问题,其中吴刚认为。最主要的一点便是在于模式的不可持续。

正文:

过去几个月,中国资本市场为手机游戏而疯狂:在创业板上市的中国最大民营影视公司之一华谊兄弟,因为不久前宣布收购手机游戏开发与运营商银汉科技50.88%的股份,其股价在五天内上涨了45%。

掌趣科技,另一家同样在创业板上市的游戏开发与运营商,也因为几起有关手机游戏公司的收购,而导致股价狂飙,过去半年来已经上涨超过300%,市值接近150亿元。其他一些直接或间接受益于手机游戏的公司还包括:拓维信息,网龙,中国手游等,这些公司在过去半年的股价都上涨了100~300%。

对于资本玩家们而言,任何能与手机游戏沾上边的机会,都意味着巨额的交易利润。

一家手机游戏开发公司的创始人悄悄告诉我(但再三叮嘱我不要公开他和他的公司的名字),几家投资机构找到他,希望通过某家上市公司与他达成一笔收购的意向,但最后这笔交易并不会执行,但他的公司将因此获得数千万元的回报——当然,那些机构真正关心的也并非收购,而是“可能收购”的消息以帮助其通过资本市场获益——不过最后他回绝了。

那么,是什么让手机游戏成为有利可图的故事来源?

买家:和过去类似的资本市场热门概念不同,这次的财大气粗购买主力军是产业资本。网龙旗下的91无线,去年收入2.8亿元,手机游戏是主要收入来源之一,被百度以令人咂舌的19亿美元买走,比年初一次融资的估值溢价了近400%。不过,即便这样,考虑到91无线是目前中国主要的手机应用分发渠道之一,以及数亿的用户,对百度而言,仍然并非胡闹。

手机游戏打动买家的理由之一:手机游戏仍然是迄今为止商业模式最成功的应用,和最能吸引用户的应用之一。去年福布斯中文版曾选出30家最赚钱的移动互联网公司,其中将近一半是手机游戏,银汉科技、掌趣科技、网龙和中国手游都位列这30家公司。

能够产生大量高增长的收入乃至利润,这是产业资本关注的重中之重,因为受到中国经济整体下滑的影响,微观的企业层面也受到了增长放缓的影响,转型又其路漫漫,而打上了移动互联网标签的手机游戏,就成为既能解决增长近渴,或许还能套取新兴产业扶助基金支持,又能提供转型动力或者可能的远景,受追捧便在情理之中。

同时,美国二级市场对传统游戏公司的估值普遍不高,只有10来倍甚至几倍的市盈率,这也在一定程度上打消了手机游戏公司创业者们博取独立上市的积极性,为产业资本以相对低的价格介入提供了可能——相对而言,中国创业板上市公司的市盈率动辄几十倍甚至上百倍。

以华谊兄弟收购银汉科技为例,考虑到银汉科技承诺2013年实现1.1亿元的净利润(据说),其收购价格的预期市盈率实际上只有12倍,而过去12个月华谊兄弟的动态市盈率已经超过60倍。这意味着华谊兄弟转手就能通过资本市场赚到200%以上(假设到年底时华谊兄弟的市盈率能够降到40倍)。同时,华谊兄弟还有机会在原有的影视与游戏之间建立某种战略互动,帮助公司转型。

卖家:买的没有卖的精。既然移动互联网是未来的大势所趋,而手机游戏又是目前最赚钱的细分领域,那么,手机游戏公司的创始人们为什么都急着将公司卖掉,而不是努力成为下一个盛大、网易或腾讯?——发出这一令人震撼的疑问的是顽石互动的CEO吴刚。

他认为,山寨流行或者说缺乏创新氛围、门槛低机会少导致的竞争激烈和渠道成本上升、产品生命周期短等,都导致手机游戏赚钱越来越难。

这一点也被UC优视首席运营官朱顺炎所证明,根据他此前在一次公开场合的介绍,尽管UC旗下手机游戏平台九游上的游戏数量增长到去年的5倍,市场收入规模翻了一番,但只有20%的可以赚到钱。纳斯达克上市公司中国手游去年业绩变盈为亏,则是另外一个例子。

下面是尹生(微信公号jia-zhi-xian)和吴刚关于当前手机游戏行业的部分对话,对于了解当下这场手机游戏狂热的未来走向有一定帮助(相关内容未经吴刚本人确认,更全面的经过确认的内容请关注即将出版的福布斯中文版2013最赚钱的移动互联网公司专题):

尹生:过去这么多年游戏业出现了很多机会,领头公司不断更迭,为什么?

吴刚:机会始终存在,关键是有的公司发现了并且做大了,当所有的人都一窝蜂看准一个机会时,可能机会已经丧失了。像现在,全都在做手机游戏,你怎么赚钱?我最近去了硅谷,硅谷有很多游戏公司,他们推崇的是这件事是我第一个做的,即便输了,我的地位也奠定了。

一个硅谷游戏制作人跟我说,我很羡慕你,在中国能做山寨游戏。他说,你们有压力时可以去山寨一个,我如果山寨,我公司三分之一的人会提辞呈,因为没必要为我赚钱,而他们自己承担风险,因为在这个行业里面,员工更看重自己的品牌。中国只要老板给你够多的钱,什么事都愿意帮你干。

尹生:顽石出产品很慢,但手机游戏行业给人的一般印象是,产品生命周期很短,可能只有几个月,为了赚更多的钱,你必须不断推出新产品。

吴刚:怎么会有这样的想法呢?老产品生命周期越长,成本越低;推新产品越多,死得越快,页游就是这样把自己搞死的。如果你每个产品的生命周期能够做到三五年,你的成本平摊起来就极低。目前,游戏成本主要是开发和推广,只有将生命周期做长收入做大,才能分摊。也许你一个月能挣3000万,但我们一个月1000万已经三年了,你能抗住几个月?我的利润率最终比你高得多。

尹生:这是不是可以解释一些公司在做到一定用户规模后,开始转向平台化,使自己分享部分渠道利润?

吴刚:你是依靠流量扩张,还是自身扩张?这是个问题。我们主要是自身扩张,但行业里有60%以上是依靠渠道扩张的,扩张成本与收入呈正比。我们不做盲目扩张,很多游戏公司一上来,两三个月要宣称自己上千万,为什么?如果不宣称这样,渠道不帮他们推,依靠自己的能力,是很难实现收入回报和快速发展。

假设我们一个月500万,但全是我们自己解决的,剔除安卓和APP Store,加上缴税,我们能剩下60%,即300万,扣除开发和人员,利润很可观。如果全是依靠渠道,渠道最少拿五六成,扣除APP Store和安卓等费用,你1000万的收入最终能拿到的可能不到200万。

就像一个池子,必须不停注入更多的水,才能放出更多的流出。你靠的是流量,一旦流量费用更高,渠道制约越大,就不得不拿更多流量,才能守住成本线和利润线,最后没有流量来源的公司会先死掉。为什么腾讯把客户端游戏,页游都玩死了,因为整个行业把渠道成本推高了,要么拥有自己的渠道,要么是做产品力很强的公司,除此之外很难生存下来。

尹生:你怎么看现在手机游戏行业的火爆场景?

吴刚:现在大家都在玩一个游戏,就是越早进入市场,拿到的流量就越便宜,于是很多公司都想的是先赚钱,如果挣不到钱了,就不玩了,为什么手游公司这么火,都在赚钱,但都要急着将自己卖出呢,如果这个生意可以持续良性发展,为什么要卖?

关键是这个模式不可持续,于是搏傻,现在有人接棒,因为很多上市公司就是一个空壳,假如它的市盈率是15倍,它只要10倍买入公司,就能忽悠资本市场,让股民接棒。这是生意,不是公司,我做的是公司。

—————

iDoNews 长期招聘有志于从事互联网科技媒体行业、并愿意不断提高自己的层次和档次的记者/编辑/运营,我们会花很长时间物色真正具有一流水平的小伙伴加入。有意者投简历至:xiaoo.sem@qq.com。


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