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导读:在语音和短信替代者方面,易信可能会比微信更有颠覆性,这有机会让它抓住数亿即将转向智能手机的价格敏感性用户。挑战是:微信正将战争前线从语音、短信替代者转向应用服务平台和生态系统战。就是说,易信和微信,看似是正面碰撞,实则各说各话。

正文:

易信已经发布一周,我的微信好友中约有一半似乎已经装了易信。我尝试用易信向我的联通座机发送了几条语音留言,除了一次声音有点卡,其他几次还算正常,就是语音提醒时个别字眼带有浓厚的地方口音。

易信不同于微信的地方主要包括:即便对方没有安装易信,我仍然可以向对方的手机或座机(似乎做到了不限运营商)发送文字消息或语音留言,易信通过一个中间的400免费号码提供了中转服务;使用易信添加好友时,不需要经过对方认证,只需按一下添加按钮即可,如果对方已经安装易信的话。

单看下载量,易信显然还没有表现出“微信颠覆者”应有的范儿:在中国最大安卓应用商店安卓市场(91无线下属平台之一)上,易信迄今一共才有18万余次下载,而仅昨天(8月25日)一天,微信的下载量就达到39万次。

我的微信好友名单实际上带有一定的误导性,因为他们主要是媒体同行、互联网公司职员或者创业者,而这些人更可能是带着试试看的心态下载易信,因为这是确保履行他们工作职责的一部分:了解市场新动向。他们中的很大一部分,可能并不会成为易信理想的用户,他们只是试试看而已。

易信的成功与否,取决于如何将这些试用者和更多的潜在用户转变为真正的活跃用户,让他们将更多时间消耗在易信里。迄今,易信离这一步还有很远的距离——相较而言,微信则拥有近两亿月活跃用户,其朋友圈、游戏中心、扫一扫、支付等功能正在构建一个高黏性、高商业价值的生态。

但这并不能否定易信的颠覆潜力:

通过允许易信用户向采用任何网络的手机或座机的用户发送免费短信和语音留言,它比微信在作为传统运营商短消息替代者方面,更加具有颠覆性。

而由于它不需要对方一定要装有易信,添加朋友时不用认证,它又在一定程度上消解了微信作为先发者的优势,甚至削平了传统的类似社交网络的壁垒,在传统PC互联网时代,一旦一个社交网络形成,新的竞争者很难插足,而在移动时代,用户的通讯录成为谁都可以利用的资源池,用户的转移成本大幅下降。

在个别地方,易信还有机会比微信更有颠覆性,比如易信号的电话号码化。目前,一个微信号码仅仅在与通讯录中的名字一致时,才显示电话号码并允许直接拨打,而且你并不能享受任何通话优惠。而易信则有机会做得更彻底。

由于易信是中国电信和网易公司合作的产物(二者分别持有73%和27%的股份),中国电信占有主要的利益结构,这让它有动力背水一战,将一部分短期利益(主要是传统语音通信)通过易信免费或以极低的成本转移给用户(用户只需支付使用易信的数据流量费用),从而避免成为微信的被动挨宰者,而网易更了解互联网,且有更强的草根商业文化,从而可以让它做得更好。

如果易信真能做到这点——即便只是部分做到,比如作为一个替代的、但仍然相当有颠覆性的方案,即提供一个远比传统语音通话费用低的套餐计划,易信将据此吸引到大量对资费敏感的用户。到目前为止,微信对大量用户而言,核心的价值仍然是传统语音和短信的廉价替代者角色。

另一个可能给易信机会的,是中国手机用户的换机潮。虽然微信已经占有了在前半程进入智能手机时代的用户,但作为全球人口最多的国家和手机保有量最大的市场,未来两年可能还有数亿用户会转向智能手机,而这些用户可能对通信价格更为敏感,因而更容易被易信可能推出的语音替代计划所吸引。

虽然这样的方案对微信并没有任何技术上的门槛,但目前这项业务仍然处于被限制的行列,相比微信,中国电信则更容易绕开相关限制,率先革自己的命,并在长期战略上受益。

此外,易信还有一个微信所不具备的优势:敌人的敌人就是朋友。由于微信让大多数雄心勃勃的互联网公司感到了潜在的威胁,这些公司可能也会希望一个微信的替代者出现。比如,已经有传言,拥有数万员工的京东打算让公司的员工全部转向易信。

但易信所面临的挑战同样明显:另外两大运营商出于各自的小算盘,可能对易信进行掣肘;中国电信和网易的合作机制带来的不确定性——易信对两家公司都有战略重要性,而且在实践中两家公司对各自的贡献可能会存在自我放大;政府在类SKYPE电话服务上的限制,可能让易信颠覆得不够彻底。

最后,也最重要的,是微信正在将竞争前线从语音和短信替代者角色,转移到生态系统和用户价值壁垒的建设上——这无疑将促使用户将更多的虚拟资产投入到微信上,这样的投入越多,转移的成本也越高。

尹生(微信公号:jia-zhi-xian)在今年5月的福布斯中文网专栏文章《微信收费:商业化不成功,争论不死》中,曾提到微信要摆脱看运营商脸色的处境,就必须从单纯的语音和短消息替代者角色,转向更广泛的应用服务和生态系统。而现在,微信的应用体系和生态系统正在形成雏形。

在6月份的专栏文章《中国移动推Jego就能结果微信吗》中,尹生又认为Jego似乎抓住了微信不能与电话号码合二为一的软肋,但如果微信建立起不可替代的商业和用户价值生态,就像PC时代的QQ那样,Jego也可能照样像飞信那样没有结果。

现在Jego已经暂停新用户注册和音视频电话功能,而微信的商业化系统与几个月前比又有了很大进展。局面是:易信如果不能实现与电话号码的合二为一,在用户的语音刚需上颠覆用户的预期,就可能继续像过去一周表现的这样,不温不火,或最多像米聊那样,在某个细分市场占据一席之地;如果它这样做了,又是否会成为Jego第二呢?

我的一些微信好友已经表示不会真的转向易信,因为他们在这里有更多事情可做。也许他们根本就不是易信设计的核心用户。但无论如何,留给易信的机会窗口不会开得太久。

—————

iDoNews 长期招聘有志于从事互联网科技媒体行业、并愿意不断提高自己的层次和档次的记者/编辑/运营,我们会花很长时间物色真正具有一流水平的小伙伴加入。有意者投简历至:xiaoo.sem@qq.com。


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