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导言:腾讯与搜狐一周前的交易,可能对新搜狗的搜索和游戏业务产生积极推动作用,从而使新公司的价值增加到20亿美元以上,但腾讯并没有将搜搜最核心的业务陪嫁给搜狗,相反新搜狗成为腾讯的流量套现渠道,和助其与宿敌360缠斗的凶猛“獒犬”(从最近360和新搜狗之间上演的封杀与反封杀大戏,就足见一斑)。

在腾讯以4.48亿美元加上搜搜搜索和输入法业务并入搜狗后,这笔交易会如何影响新搜狗的价值?我在之前的福布斯中文网专栏文章《“打手”搜狗的价值:5~10亿美元》中,曾经预计根据买家的不同,搜狗的合理价值在5~10亿美元之间。而现在在新的股东结构、业务等安排下,新搜狗的价值也会发生一些变化。

搜搜会成为新搜狗的包袱吗?

腾讯在将搜搜作为嫁妆送给搜狗时,只包括其搜索业务和输入法,并不包括地图、浏览器(特别是手机浏览器),地图的战略价值不言而喻,而浏览器则是搜搜流量的主要来源。

据艾瑞提供的数据,去年腾讯在手机搜索上实现了1.2亿元的收入,这也验证了腾讯搜索可能在手机上迎来爆发的传言,而这一成绩又是以腾讯的手机浏览器作为基础的,根据cnzz的统计,腾讯手机浏览器目前已经是仅次于UC的第三方移动浏览器,份额约为UC的一半。

这种安排对搜狗的可能影响是:搜索业务对腾讯是一项纯烧钱业务,根据腾讯前副总裁吴军在接受福布斯中文网采访时透露的信息,搜搜在人力成本上是搜狗的5~10倍,机器成本约为搜狗的3倍,而搜搜的营收和流量份额却都远低于搜狗,因此合并后搜搜业务很可能会大幅抬高搜狗的整体运营成本。

同时,过去搜搜作为腾讯的一个业务单元时,可以从腾讯的其他业务(包括浏览器)免费获得流量,而未来新搜狗可能不得不向腾讯支付一大笔流量费用,除非在交易中有特别的安排,但如果协议涉及继续免费提供流量,又可能使腾讯相关业务缺乏足够激励,从而降低其引流的积极性。

当然,考虑到搜狗有不俗的套现能力,如果按照完全市场化的交易模式,搜狗则可能通过收入创造为腾讯相关部门提供不俗的激励,这会促使他们比过去更积极的帮助搜狗拓展流量。

不过,除了所有这些,还必须考虑到整合的经济和时间成本——现在,360受到刺激后,可能会采取更加激进的方式抢抓渠道和客户资源,而由于360和新搜狗在模式上更加相似,当360抓得更多的相关资源时,新搜狗可以拼抢的资源也就减少了。

毕竟搜索渠道的建立对周鸿祎并不陌生,他和他的团队在3721时代就已经做过一遍。因此,我对新搜狗业务的预测,也选择360整体业务走向成熟的同样时间点即2016年,作为下一个关键时间点。

货币化能力是评估新搜狗价值的出发点

具体货币化能力可以通过营收份额/流量份额比率来体现。目前艾瑞仅公布了2013年Q1之前的搜索请求量份额和Q2之前的营收份额,用Q2营收份额/Q1搜索请求量份额,百度、搜狗、搜搜、360分别为:0.993、0.6、1.08、0.09;一年前百度和搜狗分别为(当时360搜索还未商业化)0.923和0.592。

另一家流量监测机构cnzz的数据也常被引用,不过cnzz并没有提供营收份额,因此我仍然用艾瑞的营收数据,具体来说,是用2013Q2艾瑞的营收份额/2013年6月cnzz流量份额(cnzz提供了占有率和使用率两个指标,为了简化,我采用使用率指标,即某款搜索引擎产生的页面浏览量占总页面浏览量的比例)。需要提醒的是,我不打算纠结于艾瑞和cnzz统计数据的较大差距,两家公司采用的统计口径并不相同。

Cnzz的数据显示,6月份百度、360、搜狗、搜搜的使用率份额分别为69.37%,15.26%、8.83%和3.4%),如此计算出来的百度、360、搜狗和搜搜四家公司的营收份额/流量份额比率分别为:1.173,0.052,0.374和0.382。如果用2012年3月的cnzz数据去除当时艾瑞提供的营收份额,则百度、搜狗和搜搜的营收份额/流量份额比率分别为0.998,0.34和0.271。

按货币化能力计算,谷歌位居首位:其2013Q2的营收份额/流量份额比高达6.76,它以2.13%的搜索使用率,抢到了14.4%的营收份额。其次是百度,很长一段时间一直超过0.9。而搜搜的货币化能力竟然和搜狗差不多——不过这很容易引起误会,因为搜搜货币化能力相比去年的提高是建立在其流量份额的下降上的——360反而处于殿后的位置。

接下来,为了评估新搜狗的价值,需要做如下假设:

第一,考虑到谷歌和百度都主要是主动搜索(即用户主要通过输入谷歌和百度的网址使用其搜索),而主动搜索的商业价值可能要高于搜狗、360这样以被动搜索为主的形式,因此,在谷歌和百度两家公司之间巨大的货币化能力反差可能难以持续,最终受蚕食的可能是谷歌,它将让出相当部分的营收份额给搜狗和360。另外,谷歌的畸高也可以用百度有进一步提高货币化比率的潜力来解释。

第二,根据cnzz公布的8月份流量统计报告,百度、360、搜狗和搜搜的使用率份额分别为66.43%,17.06%,10.01%和3.15%。考虑到在后三家公司中,搜狗独立运营的时间最长,且较为稳定,其在2012Q2和2013Q2的营收份额/流量份额比率分别为0.34和0.38,假定新搜狗能在三年内将该比率稳步提升到0.5左右,或者按照艾瑞统计口径计算的0.75的比率。

第三,假定新搜狗三年后能获得的份额按照三种可能分别为:概率为60%的可能——按照cnzz口径统计的15%使用率份额,和按照艾瑞统计口径的10%搜索请求量份额;概率为30%的可能——cnzz口径18%的使用率份额和12%的艾瑞口径搜索请求量份额;概率为10%的可能——cnzz口径20%的使用率份额和艾瑞口径15%的搜索请求量份额。

加权平均的新搜狗搜狗三年后份额为:按照cnzz口径的16.4%使用率份额,和按照艾瑞口径的11.1%搜索请求量份额。

不错,如果将8月份的搜狗和搜搜各自的份额简单相加,新搜狗合计的使用率份额达到13.16%;按照艾瑞2013Q1的数据相加,新搜狗的搜索请求量份额为6.7%。但需要考虑到的是,由于搜搜和输入法的品牌将被搜狗取代,以及两家公司的用户存在一定程度的重合,整合初期可能会丧失部分份额,因此新搜狗要达到假设的三年后目标,尚需付出巨大努力——只是这场交易并没有给新搜狗留下一分钱的现金,反而可能是更重的成本包袱。

根据这些假设,就可以计算三年后新搜狗来自搜索的收入,大约为9.6亿美元:

按照cnzz统计口径,三年后的营收份额为8.2%,三年后搜索市场整体营收规模为117亿美元(相关推算参见尹生(微信公号jia-zhi-xian)之前的福布斯专栏文章《奇虎360凭什么值100亿美元》),届时新搜狗营收为9.6亿美元;

按照艾瑞统计口径,三年后营收份额为8.3%,和按cnzz统计口径的结果非常接近。这相当于2013~2016年新搜狗的搜索业务保持80%的年复合增长——去年搜狗的整体收入为1.3亿美元,其中来自搜索的收入按70%计算,即0.91亿美元;同时还可以参照今年前两个季度的数据,该期间搜狗整体营收分别同比增长73%和64%,过去几年增长一直超过100%。

接下来估算网址导航业务三年后的收入,可望达到两亿美元:

网址导航业务是典型的流量套现业务,搜狗主要流量来自搜狗浏览器,这一点和奇虎360类似。因此奇虎360网址导航业务是个不错的参照。目前网址导航业务占360全部收入的60%,而搜狗网址导航在第一季度时占全部收入的比例是23%,这一比例和一年前大致相当——因此,我们可以假定2012年全年搜狗来自网址导航的收入占23%。

下面几个数据也很重要:过去四个季度,奇虎的总收入为4.48亿美元,而搜狗为1.67亿美元;根据cnzz的数据,8月份360浏览器的使用率份额为24.78%,而搜狗浏览器为6.99%。

考虑到浏览器是两家公司搜索、网址导航和游戏业务的主要和直接流量来源,那么用收入/浏览器市场份额,就可以判定两家公司的整体货币化能力:奇虎360为0.18,即每个百分比的浏览器份额,能够换来0.18亿美元的收入,而搜狗则为0.24,可见目前搜狗的货币化能力要比360稍胜一筹。

因此,可以认为搜狗网址导航的年收入理论上可以提升到与它的浏览器份额相匹配的水平,我曾预测三年后360来自网址导航的收入为7.4亿美元,那么按照两家公司的浏览器份额相对比,假定搜狗网址导航三年后可以达到两亿美元的理论值,而这意味着搜狗网址导航业务在2013~2016年间保持60%的复合增长,这个增长速度与过去几个季度搜狗的整体增长速度一致,但低于我对搜索业务80%的增长预期,可以解释为搜搜相关业务对搜狗搜索业务的提升要远甚于对网址导航业务。

为什么是三年?那是因为新搜狗和360处于同一竞争阵列,而我曾预计360在三年后其业务结构可以进入相对成熟期,这也意味着新搜狗必须在这之前抢到有利的位置。

游戏部门三年后可望实现2.3亿美元的收入:

和360一样,搜狗的游戏业务的流量直接来自浏览器和搜索引擎。不同的是,360搜索去年刚刚起步,可以假定其用户全部来自浏览器的导流,这一点可以在360浏览器24.78%的份额和18.23%的独立访客占有率的差距反应出来,而搜狗在这方面要表现良好一些,因为它的搜索引擎独立访客占有率达到了10.35%,而浏览器才6.99%,这可以解释为它不但将浏览器用户导向搜索引擎,而且搜索引擎还吸引了大量的主动搜索用户。

在估计搜狗游戏业务收入时,我们假定它能在三年后达到和360同样的游戏货币化程度——这不但是考虑到了搜狐集团在游戏领域的丰富经验和资源,也考虑到了腾讯在游戏领域的经验和资源,还考虑了两家公司的整体货币化能力。

假如以24.78%代表360游戏业务的潜在用户规模,以10.35%代表搜狗游戏的潜在用户规模,而我之前曾预计2016年时360游戏业务收入可望达到8亿美元,那么相应地搜狗游戏业务也可能实现3.3亿美元的收入。但考虑到新搜狗可能要用上一年才能完成整合,并建立起新的战略,因此对这个数字打七折,即为2.3亿美元。这意味着搜狗游戏在2013~2016必须实现120%的增长。

综合三项收入,搜狗在2016年可望实现14亿美元的收入,即2013~2016年,搜狗整体上要实现80%的年复合增长——考虑到搜狗在过去几年一直保持100%以上的增长,实现这一增长水平并非不可能。

接下来,我打算直接估算新搜狗的净利润,然后作为估值的依据。估计新搜狗2016年的净利率,可以综合考虑下列事实或数据:

1,去年底搜狗CEO王小川曾透露,该年度搜狗用于研发的投入达到1亿美元,考虑到研发投入具有延续性,因此在随后几年,新搜狗的研发投入可能只会比这个数字高;

2,搜狗之前曾公布2013Q2搜索相关毛利率为47%,2013Q1为42%,2012Q2为44%,可以认为这是公司整体的毛利率,考虑到新搜狗的流量获取成本会有较大提高,毛利率的提升空间有限;

3,过去四个季度,360的净利润率为14%,这一数字与2012年全年的水平相当,但360的用户基础和活跃度要高于搜狗,导致其流量成本低;

4,百度目前的销售、一般及管理费用率为14.3%,研发费用率为12.5%,毛利率为65%,净利润率为34%。但百度的用户主要是主动搜索,根据cnzz的统计,目前百度的用户整体体验要远远好于其他搜索引擎,这些都会提升其商业价值,保持稳定的盈利水平。

综合这些,给予2016年的新搜狗10%的净利润率,即2016年新搜狗可望实现1.4亿美元的净利润,届时其各项业务可能会进入成熟期,增长速度可能会下降到40~50%,即和现在的腾讯、百度面临的情况相似,而目前百度和腾讯的动态市盈率分别是30倍和40倍,给予新搜狗2016年30倍的市盈率,即2016年新搜狗的价值为42亿美元,使用25%的折现率,目前新搜狗的价值应为21.5亿美元。

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