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大众点评一直被认为是下一个最有希望跻身百亿美元俱乐部的公司之一,也是最有希望在O2O领域拿到门票的公司之一,但最近一年多来,随着微信5.0的推出,传统互联网大佬的发力,以及包括新浪微博、高德软件、91无线等移动互联网相关重要公司相继接受大佬的投资或被收编,大众点评的前途似乎也被蒙上了一层阴影。

比如,业界曾有传言它可能会成为下一个被收购的对象,其中百度就被认为是一个潜在的买家,不过百度在不久前收购了另一家团购往网站糯米网。真实的情况到底怎样?恐怕只有大众点评创始人张涛本人最清楚,只不过他是那种典型的行事低调的创业者,做多说少。

两个月前,我和张涛进行了一次对话,话题包括:大众点评会成为下一个被收购的对象吗?面对大佬的发力,大众点评在O2O领域会起个早赶个晚集吗?大众点评是不是过于保守了?团购会迎来盈利时代吗?等等,张涛直面问题逐一作答。这次对话的主体部分已发表于福布斯中文版杂志第9期,这里增加了部分被删节的内容。

以下是对话内容:

团购相比两年前变得更集中了,但竞争也更激烈了,剩下来的巨头都希望在格局定下来之前抢占最大的地盘。

尹生:去年采访你时,你曾经提到今年公司要盈利,能实现吗?

张涛:我们在2008年的时候已经实现了盈利,后来我们布局移动互联网、团购等,相当于进入二次创业阶段我们的信息平台业务目前是盈利的,但团购业务还在打仗。主要团购竞争还很激烈,几年前是乱战,现在是两三家寡头,去年平静了一段时间,现在竞争又加剧了,新的竞争才刚刚开始。

尹生:你如何定义目前团购所处的阶段?

张涛:规模、成本与运营效率、销售效率、管理,这两方面都需要。产品控制也很重要。目前中国团购行业的整体毛利率还没有到10%,毛利率相对两年前仍然没有回升趋势。如果团购整体毛利率能达到8~9%,就能盈利。

尹生:你预计这种状态会持续多久?

张涛:这很难说。几家规模都不小,运营能力,管理能力各方面都不差,会需要一段时间。从收入看目前我们信息平台和团购交易平台是一半对一半,团购交易额高。信息平台业务我们是赚钱的,团购还在打仗。从整体上看,我们现在差不多打平,要平马上能平,只要减少投入。

大众点评的不同之处就在于,它既有信息平台业务,又有团购业务,由于信息平台业务不涉及交易,就不需要建立庞大的线下支持队伍,这让它可以在团购业务进入更多的城市之前,在那里先期建立品牌、商家信息等方面的优势。

尹生:你认为大众点评相对于其他团购网站的最大不同是什么?

张涛:我们的业务包括信息平台和交易平台,信息平台业务提供吃喝玩乐的信息,帮助用户找到需要的服务提供者,团购提供优惠打折,这是其他网站没有的,是我们独特的优势,我们是两个战场,辛苦一些。如果我们布局完成后,会轻松一些。

尹生:能否谈谈这两块业务目前的具体情况?

张涛:从商户的数量看,信息平台比团购平台大,我们去年在信息平台这块补了很多量,两年前可能只有两百万商户,现在超过400万万。从长远看,信息平台的盈利潜力可能会比团购大。

尹生:有没有一种机制有意识地将信息平台的用户导向团购平台的用户?

张涛:信息平台和团购平台的用户一定是在互转的,团购优惠不是坏东西,是好东西,我们是愿意把用户导向好东西的,有时用户对优惠的兴趣比对找到一个餐馆更重视。

尹生:这种关系是不是有点像淘宝和天猫?

张涛:我们还不一样,我们是相互导,淘宝是海量信息,天猫更像京东,我们信息和优惠是用户有机需求的一部分。

地图是大众点评战略的核心支撑,但它可能无法在短期内自己建立相关的产品,而只能寄希望于现有的供应商,比如高德,但高德与阿里巴巴的关系,阿里巴巴与美团的关系,以及阿里巴巴对本地生活的觊觎,都让大众点评的未来面临挑战,因为它可能无法保持自身O2O相关数据的独占性。

尹生:地图已经成为大众点评的核心支持,有没有考虑推出自己的地图服务?

张涛:暂时没有打算自己做,我们现在和高德深度合作。地图的投入要求很大,是个技术活,谷歌做了八九年了。

尹生:那是否担心高德会进入你们的阵地、尤其是阿里巴巴入股高德后?

张涛:就像我们做地图很难,他们做我们这块也很难,最好是互补,要走线下就需要建销售团队,另外内容上要拿点评内容,这两块都不好做,点评我们做了10年。

张涛不认为传统大佬能轻易将其流量优势,转移到O2O领域,因为O2O需要建立一个包括线下商户在内的生态系统。

尹生:那些掌握着巨大用户量的巨头都有可能切入信息这块,你不担心吗?大众点评会不会在这上面起个大早赶个晚集?

张涛:信息这块难度很大,门槛很高,有用户群的(巨头),不一定能把他们转向你想做的事情,淘宝购买了口碑,导了很多流量过去,但也没做成,百度做有啊,也导了很多流量过去,也没有把淘宝干掉,腾讯也想做拍拍,也不成。

尹生:你是不是在说,在O2O领域,那些有用户量的互联网巨头很难仅仅利用其传统优势而赢得可观的位置?

张涛:O2O很多都是跟线下内容有关的东西,不是简单导流量就行的,不是纯的互联网模式导流量就行了,在纯互联网模式上,大佬很有优势,弄一个视频,播放器等,流量导过去就可以了,你如果是这个领域的公司,就要担心了。但O2O不是一个简单的导流量,需要生态链,做内容,这些都是大佬不擅长的。

尹生:现在的问题似乎是,大众点评的信息业务大量消耗资源,却免费提供给所有人,有时可能还包括竞争对手的用户,这是否会使其在内部资源的分配上受到限制,从而影响其服务质量?

张涛:还是人的问题,我们最近一两年都在补很多人,在人员到位后,这一年有极大改善。

所有试图引领创新的公司都会遇到的问题:人才。解决问题的关键,在于是希望采用拿来主义招来即用,还是愿意给予有潜力的创新天才相应的土壤和空气,在竞争和资本双重压力之下,这是个艰难的选择。

尹生:上次采访时你就提到人是最大障碍,那么大众点评最需要的是怎样的人才?

张涛:主要是领军者,关键的产品和技术,我们过去一年补了20个左右。有名的人没有,我们要的是做产品的人,是团长级别的人,带兵打仗的,不是元帅,我们不缺帅。比如我们做的会员卡,发卡数量两个月前已经超过了1000万,超过了微信。

尹生:你反复提到人手不够,是因为薪酬吸引力不够,还是没法找到合适的人,因为业务是新的,没有现成的人才?

张涛:我们想做的比我们能力所及多得多,在互联网里面有这个能力,又能做我们这个事情的公司不多,可选的人也不多,又在上海。如果能更快,发展会更快。

围绕用户建立一个价值闭环,这是每个O2O创业者的努力方向,它的难点在于,一是你必须通过大数据等技术,来让用户感觉不到这个闭环的存在,二是必须同参与其中的商家建立无缝链接。

尹生:你刚才提到了电子会员卡,现在它产生收入吗?

张涛:目前不产生,是对信息平台黏性有帮助。对用户而言,除了可以找到商户,这么多商户还有打折。对商户而言,电子会员卡可以帮助商户建立忠诚用户的管理系统,通过对用户信息及行为的分析,做出更好的营销决策,电子会员卡是帮助实现闭环的一个产品。另外我们也做了预订,也是闭环,增加黏性的。

尹生:是不是说,如何把公司掌握的各种数据进行融会贯通地使用是下一步要做的?

张涛:是的。一是信息要丰富,就像商户数,点评数,我们上个月点评数同比增加了100%,二是有了内容后如何让用户方便找到,即信息整合。我们通过内容组合,使显示更加符合用户当时的需求场景,比如你从北京到上海,和上海到北京,搜索的东西是不一样的。我们在用大数据的思路解决问题。

尹生:对商户而言,它们最需要的是,你如何帮助他们及时消化过剩的服务能力,比如当一家餐馆有空位置时,能及时帮助它吸引到新的顾客,大众点评在这方面做了什么?

张涛:我们很想实现,技术上不难,难在商户的配合度,商户需要一套随时管理位置的软件,对其流程等也有新的要求。我们现在有预约预订,但看不到位置。又比如未来你在等位时,你可以先去逛商场,轮到你后发一个短信提醒你。我们刚刚开发出来一个座位的实时管理系统,接下来打算找些商户做试点。

尹生:是不是移动互联网起来后,对大众点评的业务有很多改变?

张涛:对,移动互联网关键是位置,它能根据你的位置及使用习惯决定用户需要的东西,其次用户不需要注册,很方便使用。在PC互联网上Cookie是不好做的。在手机上做大数据则很重要,特别是我们涉及的是用户附近的生活服务。

在有些时候,大众点评似乎更愿意做一个跟随者,而非领先者。张涛认为大众点评并不保守,不过是有所为所有不为。

尹生:对于大众点评,一般给人的印象,是不愿意做率先的创新,而更愿意做一个跟随者,在一些方面还有些保守,比如在团购、打车软件等上面的表现,是这样的吗?

张涛:挺多误解的,点评一直在做的事情都在引领行业先潮,在世界上都是,有些事情没有做,都是顾不过来,人手不够。

我们是全球第一家做第三方点评的公司(比美国的Yelp早一年),其他如电子优惠券、积分卡、生活消费领域的移动客户端,我们在全球都是最早进入的。

目前我们会做电子会员卡、预约预订都和别人做的不一样,都是有独创性的。我们在中国做团购,也只是晚了3个月,当时因为要同时布局移动互联网,人力不到位。任何我们应该做的,我们都做了,我们没有错失过什么东西。

尹生:可能一些人说的是现在行业正在发生剧变,大众点评似乎一直没有拿出什么提纲携领的创新。

张涛:我们在没有做好之前,不愿意说。我们还是比较激进的。有些事情是我们故意不做的,比如打车,我们定位在吃喝玩乐,聚焦在吃喝玩乐,租车不算这个行业,还有很多我们都会不做,但可以合作,比如二手房,汽车交易等等,我们都不会做。

O2O本来就应该是低调前行的,看起来不性感,比如携程,早期到处发卡,但经过很长一段时间后突然被发现已经在颠覆一个大的行业。

尹生:现在大家都一窝蜂地涌向O2O,你有什么观点?

张涛:O2O不会是一家通吃的,不像一个淘宝,卖什么东西都可以,支付、物流等搞定就行,O2O每个行业都不一样,每个产品都不标准,餐饮和租车完全是两码事,用户要的界面等也不一样。但跟吃喝玩乐相关的,我们就做,我们在中国是少数几家有原创的公司之一,很多公司都是抄来抄去的。

尹生:是不是可以这样理解,O2O本来就应该是低调前行的,看起来不性感,比如携程,早期到处发卡,但经过很长一段时间后突然被发现已经在颠覆一个大的行业?

张涛:你说得太对了。误解的核心问题不是我们低调,而是中国人包括媒体都很浮躁,希望很快,希望像微信、唱吧,用户起来很快,一两年就起来了,或者赚钱赚的很快,希望两三年就搞定,就像当时的分众传媒,媒体全都知道,因为这个故事好说,很性感,一夜致富。

媒体混淆了两个快:一个是商业模式发展快,一是执行快,商业模式快是跟行业有关的,微信用十年做,肯定死定了,其商业模式就是病毒式传播,半年一年起不来很快就死掉了,几千万的用户都没有什么影响力,要做就必须几亿的规模。

尹生:在移动互联网领域,你还关心哪些机会?

张涛:未来会面临很大的变化,以前的互联网很多是靠大量用户起来的,纯互联网的产品,浏览器,通讯工具,音乐,视频,游戏,都是纯粹互联网公司,这些都有了,接下来几年最大的机会是和传统行业的结合,怎么样去改变传统行业。

关于大众点评是否成为下一个被并购者,张涛这样回答:从公司角度讲,价值是核心,不管我们并购人家,还是别人并购我们,关键是对我们有价值的事情,我们就会去做,没有价值的事情,我们就不会去做。

尹生:已经有人在讨论,大众点评可能成为下一个被并购的与移动互联网相关的公司,你怎么看?

张涛:从公司角度讲,价值是核心,不管我们并购人家,还是别人并购我们,关键是对我们有价值的事情,我们就会去做,没有价值的事情,我们就不会去做。我们这种模式要成功,难点不是用户量,我们不小了,核心还是商户端的合作,和商户端本身的发展,其次,是管理和执行,如何管理这么多人,把效率提高。

如果我们要买,会考虑这两方面的问题,如果要和别人合作的话,得考虑别人对我们这两块是否有帮助。但是O2O行业谁在这两个方面对我们有这么大的帮助?

尹生:最近这些并购很大成份是资本在推动,想套现,你有这方面的压力吗?

张涛:资本我们没有压力,可能是我们对资本没有太大需求。我们主要的资本都是最近两三年进来,不像其他公司已经七八年了,所以资本市场对我们没有太大压力。另外,我们管理团队还控股。

尹生:从个人角度,如果价格合适,你会卖吗?毕竟最近91无线都卖了19亿美元?

张涛:我个人对卖公司本身没有什么兴趣,钱不会是对我们的诱惑,我们最希望的还是把事情做起来,对我们或者很多人讲,钱到了一个阶段就是一个数字游戏。我们在做决定时,钱在里面占的因素不是很大,最重要的还是事情能否成功。

尹生:就是说即使有人要收购我们,你还是希望把公司往前做?

张涛:对,对公司有帮助的事情,我们就会做,如果对公司发展帮助不大,我们兴趣也不大。

张涛眼中的大众点评的对手:比如腾讯微信,百度地图,阿里最近动作也很大,其他团购有美团,糯米,拉手,优惠券里面丁丁优惠,总体格局会是几个巨头,还有一些草根网站,团购优惠网站,还有一些创业型公司。

尹生:这个行业一年多来很乱,尤其是移动互联网起来后,你有没有担心哪天冒出一个对手来?你如何定义大众点评所处的行业和对手?

张涛:潜在对手很多,O2O是大东西,是可以看见的大机会,所以很多公司都在盯这块,比如腾讯微信,百度地图,阿里最近动作也很大,其他团购有美团,糯米,拉手,优惠券里面丁丁优惠,总体格局会是几个巨头,还有一些草根网站,团购优惠网站,还有一些创业型公司,但到底能不能做起来,还是看执行,变化会很大,很多事情你无法预料,我们专注于能力提高。

尹生:大众点评的核心能力是什么,优势是什么?

张涛:做吃喝玩乐O2O,就需要点评、团购、预约预订,这几个环节都有的,全球就大众点评一个,Groupon和Yelp都没有做成。而这几个东西在一起做是效率最高的。

尹生:大众点评背后有什么能力能让它兼顾这几块?

张涛:它们(Groupon和Yelp)在一开始就在每个领域成为一方诸侯,成为诸侯后你再去做别的很难,我们在中国比YELP早,没有人去做诸侯,让我们在有新模式出来时,可以去做。过去两三年我们很痛苦,但我们熬过来了。

在瞬息万变的互联网行业,有的变化是根本性的,影响深远的,有的变化是暂时性的,昙花一现的,你必须分清它们并决定变与不变。

尹生:在互联网领域有一种现象,很多公司在细分市场不错,但突然发现被别的公司抢占了地盘,是不是在这个领域必须不断进化?

张涛:没错。你需要的是关于未来发展趋势的更清晰的认识,关于行业本质的认识。我们这十年都没有太大变化,三大需求,即信息,优惠和服务,有了这个指南针,无论怎么变化,你知道大方向,这个很重要,后面变化的只是技术、产品和商业模式等形式的东西,纲是不能变的。

尹生:既不能不变,也不能随意变。

张涛:对。就像很多公司,人家做租车你也去做租车,人家做视频你也去做视频,表面很创新,很变化,你的变是没有方向的,是很危险的,很多公司都是这样死掉的。对我们就是吃喝玩乐,本质就是这些,五年十年一百年都不会变。

尹生:是不是也可以这样理解,无论是PC、手机还是其他的终端,无论是优惠,团购等都不是最核心的,都只是形式?

张涛:对,像当初出现博客,视频我们都没有做。Facebook出来后我们尝试了一下,觉得没戏就不做了,我们还是淘宝类的网站(淘宝做的是商品,大众点评做的是服务),不是微信类的网站,用户关系对我们有帮助,但不是最核心。

关于上市与盈利:上市不必然要盈利,但上市前必须能做到可以精确预测下几个季度的业绩,这样上市后才不至于被动,或者因为被短期财务表现捆住手脚而错失大好机会。

尹生:谈一谈上市计划和盈利计划吧?

张涛:还没有一个具体的想法,主要看竞争格局,商业模式的成熟等,打个比方,上市后要做季报,我们要能够有信心能将这个季报做出来,就是要能精准的预测下几个季度的收入和盈利状况,这又取决于行业不能变化太快,竞争不能是无序的,就像Groupon,上市后预测,一会儿五个亿,一会儿三个亿,根本没法搞。现在我们还做不到,变化太快。如果哪一天我们能做到这点,上市的基本条件做具备了。

尹生:是不是整体战略的确定性也是必须考虑的?

张涛:对,没错。否则因为财务压力,你可能就不敢投资一些产品,比如当时如果我们已经上市,团购出来后我们再想做,就很难。因为当时公司是盈利的,突然出现这么大的不盈利,不是不能做,但决策会很难。

给移动互联网创业者的建议:脏活累活,和传统行业结合更多的,大公司做不了的,还有一些机会,要图轻松的、纯互联网的业务,移动互联网已经没有什么机会了。

尹生:你自己这一年工作范围有变化吗?

张涛:跟公司发展的变化相适应,以前关注更多是互联网产品,信息等,也是当时很核心的,现在更多是关注商务运营,要把预约预订、团购等做好,是整个商务,而不单单是用户体验、UI,功能等。现在公司的性质决定了我在业务层面,执行和治理层面,花的精力更多。

尹生:对于那些希望抓住移动互联网的创业者,你有什么建议?

张涛:脏活累活,和传统行业结合更多的,大公司做不了的,还有一些机会,要图轻松的、纯互联网的业务,移动互联网已经没有什么机会了。整个互联网都没有什么机会。

本文首发于福布斯中文版副主编尹生的微信公号“jia-zhi-xian”

—————

iDoNews 长期招聘有志于从事互联网科技媒体行业、并愿意不断提高自己的层次和档次的记者/编辑/运营,我们会花很长时间物色真正具有一流水平的小伙伴加入。有意者投简历至:xiaoo.sem@gmail.com。


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