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中国人走过 iPhone,选择三星或更便宜的国产智能机。

中国经过长时间的拖延后最终批准了 iPhone 5 在中国内地发布。苹果股东也许以为这会是一件大事,但迹象表明并非如此。

根据技术研究机构加特纳的研究,苹果在中国大陆智能机市场份额在今年第三季度下降到了 7% 以下。这次下降幅度较大,第二季度时苹果的市场份额为 12%。

以前的情况却截然不同。不到两年前,富裕的中国消费者非常喜欢苹果。但是这些中国消费者却不会墨守成规,总是在追寻最新最酷的品牌,增加他们的私人收藏。曾经这里是 iPhone 的宝座。现在三星坐在了这里。在低端市场,消费者对 iPhone 的价格很是在意。

一位女青年在微博客网站新浪微博上写道:“我希望我能在生日时有部 iPhone 5,但我爸妈存了几个月的钱却给了我一部 iPod。”

虽然中国的中产阶级在不断增长,但是他们的富裕程度与西方的中产阶级仍不可同日而语。中国市场的iPhone 5 价格还不明朗,但根据当前汇率 iPhone 4S 当时的起售价在 780 美元(4850 元人民币)左右。此外,包括百度、阿里巴巴集团和盛大在内的中国的互联网公司在今年都发布了自己的智能机,价格在 1,000 元人民币之内。

根据加纳特的研究,苹果现在在中国智能机联盟中的排名从第二季度的第三下降到了现在的第六。在过去的六个月内,三星一直排名第一。中国制造商联想销售的产品价格低于苹果,而联想排名第二。在上海的加纳特分析员 SandyShen对 Quartz 说她预计联想将在 2013 年年末取得第一的位置。

苹果失去市场份额可能是因为中国市场的 iPhone 发布遭到了延迟。但 Shen 认为等待发布的消费者其实并不多。

Shen 说苹果的实际问题是市场饱和,消费者相信 iPhone 5 不比 4S 好到哪里,而高端消费者则被三星的优质硬件吸引。

应该拥有一部 iPhone 的这群人中,大部分已经有了一部 iPhone。至于 4S 到 5 的改进,其实并没有多少。所以人们都有那么点失望。他们或者对 iPhone 4 或 iPhone 4S 非常满意,或者在寻找另一品牌。

关于换用三星,Shen 又说:

我发现那些使用 iPhone 有两到三年时间的高端消费者现在都希望换用三星产品。这些人不在乎价格。他们一直在寻求最新的旗舰产品来增加他们的技术收藏。他们有笔记本、iPad、iPhone,现在他们又将选择 Samsung Galaxy S3 或 Galaxy Note。

Shen 继续说道,三星的硬件可能更好。

在设计和硬件参数方面,三星产品比 iPhone 更酷。比如,Galaxy Note 的屏幕更大。三星 S3 的显示屏更好。

研究公司 IHS 在 S3 优质显示屏方面的观点相同,虽然苹果发烧友对此存有异议。

Paul French 是 Mintel首席中国市场战略策划,他对 iPhone 为什么在中国注重品牌的富裕阶层失势有不同的观点。他说这跟技术特性的关系不大,他认为很多中国人对技术参数并不感兴趣,而关系较大的是中国人喜好不定。

苹果不再那么酷。青少年不再感兴趣。我在苹果商店看到的人往往是 20 往后 30 出头。

他又说:

大多数中国人不会因为新 iPhone 5 有更好的配置或功能而有兴趣买一部新的 iPhone 5。我认为大多数中国人使用 iPhone 不是因为它的应用或技术。以前的情况是,“看,我买了部 iPhone”,然后只用它打电话和发短信。我问他们有哪些应用,他们通常没有任何应用。

现在亚洲包括中国真正流行的是大手机小平板的混合物。就像 Galaxy Note,以及其他便宜的版本。青少年对这些产品特别着迷。

所以这是苹果 iPad mini 的希望。但是中国市场上也有既小又便宜的平板。一款价值 99 美元的 iPad mini 中国仿制品 Goopad Mini,10 月后期在中国市场出现,就在苹果宣布 iPad mini 这款新品几天之后。

就像在其他新兴市场一样,在中国,酷和便宜并不是大问题。中国没有大量的中产阶级或中间选择。

苹果在中国的业务仍然很大,在其销售中占 15%。去年全年,苹果在中国实现收入 238 亿美元,比2011 年的 133 亿美元增长了 79%。但是加纳特的数据显示,这些令人印象深刻的结果掩盖了季度趋势放缓的事实。在 9 月 29 日之后的三个月内,即在第四季度,苹果在中国实现收入 57 亿美元,比第二季度的 79 亿美元降低了 28%。

虽然 iPhone 4S 发布的那天,很多中国购物者挤到苹果北京旗舰店内,而且因为店铺开门延迟还发生了骚乱和投掷鸡蛋事件,但这些人并不是热切的消费者。他们可能是中国媒体所称的“黄牛”。这些黄牛大量购买可能稀缺的产品,希望之后以高价卖出。

French 说:

这是因为大约四年前,有些人购买了所有 iPhone,然后以高于零售价的价格卖出,赚了很多钱。在中国,人人都想快速赚钱,这些想法很多人都知道。

这次的问题是现在能不能找到买家。


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