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文/iDoNews资深作者 程苓峰

阿里巴巴战略投资新浪微博基本落定。在最终协议签完前双方都会辟谣。姑且信峰哥吧。

估计阿里占新浪微博15%-20%的股份,新浪微博估值20-30亿美金。

新浪微博已从新浪门户剥离,成为一家独立公司。据称有6%是管理层持股,有4%是可发送的期权,10%是员工持股。总计20%。另一说法称管理层和员工共同持股15%,大部分由核心管理层持有。

新浪微博商业化的重点举措,是即将上线的自助广告系统。这需要大量中小企业资源。目前拥有这个资源的两大家是百度和阿里。

微博商业化也需要支付渠道。目前拥有这个渠道的,阿里支付宝是第一,腾讯财付通是第二。但腾讯是新浪最大对手。

为应对腾讯微博+微信的组合,新浪合纵连横。此前与360、人人达成战略合作,加上阿里,这三家最大对手都是腾讯。对于阿里,腾讯是唯一拥有C2C、B2C、商城、支付、O2O、大流量、社会化入口的全架构以及整合优势的公司。

投资新浪微博从保守角度看是财务投资。之前阿里投资搜狗获数倍回报。阿里对社会化网站有明显偏好,之前有投资陌陌。

但从战略博弈角度,阿里投资社会化平台是构筑护城河。美丽说类网站兴起,在部分领域和一定程度上成为购物入口,和做出购物决策的环节。腾讯已投资美丽说。新浪微博也逐步成为淘宝等的重要入口。

阿里明年将整体上市,投资新浪会带来相当的想象空间。

2010年新浪微博崛起,被行业预期互联网格局可能生变,BAT三家可能成为BATS四家。但新浪微博并未从媒体成功跨界到社交。随着腾讯的防守和微信的进攻,新浪微博正逐渐失去晋身四强的历史性机遇。

新浪进入巨头板块,要比单打独斗更有抵抗力。无论被谁投资都将重大影响格局。阿里、百度、360都是可能。尤其若与360合体,将与BAT形成四强鼎力。

4年前峰哥听一位阿里副总裁亲口说过:长远而言,阿里和腾讯之间必有一战。

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