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我依稀记得在2012年6月百度的CEO李彦宏先生在当年的百度峰会上形容移动互联网如同“酒驾”,疯狂且危险。但也就是在那之后其实行业内对百度的移动联网业务有了更多的讨论,在经历了多次的论战之后,似乎有一种结论慢慢形成:“百度在移动上没戏!”。我不想讨论什么杀手级应用、什么入口以及最近很热的“船票”理论,单纯从一个用户的角度看,百度也正在摸索在移动端的战略布局。在经历了2010年的懵懂,2011年的疯狂和2012年的理性之后,中国整个移动互联网行业会在2013年开始出现真正意义上的“商业崛起”,在这场浪潮中百度并没有落后太多。

1、“BAT”里百度的移动化成果真是最差的么?

谈论中国的互联网代表,我们总会提及百度、阿里和腾讯三家公司,即俗称的“BAT”。相对于百度来说,比较公认的是阿里和腾讯其实在移动端都取得了不错的成绩。腾讯有已经一骑绝尘的微信,而阿里在电子商务移动化上甚至比PC端还要强势,但这些都是表象。我们相信社区和电子商务会在移动端有更好的发展;但我们似乎并不相信搜索会在移动端会有更强的变现能力,而这样的论调则恰恰是大家并不认可百度在移动端表现的根本原因。移动设备受限于屏幕展示位置以及搜索请求的更加定向性,传统的搜索引擎盈利方式在移动端必然要受到很大挑战;但这也就意味着其实在移动搜索这个细分领域内,在相当长的一段时间内百度所面临的竞争其实要远远小于PC端。

2、百度在移动端做了哪些尝试?

按照针对的用户属性不同,百度在移动端的产品其实可以分为两类:2C的APP产品和2B的开发者平台。

2C的产品多以独立的APP为主,具体的产品如下图:

2C类的产品中有一部分是原有百度非常成熟业务的自然延续,比如搜索、贴吧、知道、百科、文库、音乐、HAO123、新闻,除此之外也就是大家相对来说比较熟悉的浏览器、输入法、地图、Market和存储业务。这些产品中我们其实很难用“好”或者“差”来做定义,因为每个人的标准不同,即便是用最简单粗暴的用户量作为衡量准则,每个细分方向多少用户量算“好”也不尽相同。而再说得直白一些,其实很多所谓的评论家们并没有用过这些APP,完全根据自己的臆断来说这些APP没有价值明显是不对的。但我和大多数人有类似的观点,所有这些APP中其实并没有哪个特别的强势,或者说没有强势到让人望而却步的地步。个人云存储、浏览器和Market的竞争百度明显要弱于腾讯和360,看上去势头非常不错的可能就要算百度地图和输入法了。

(今天有传闻百度地图活跃用户有几千万,个人感觉是扯淡,装机量倒是有可能。)

我是百度地图的忠实用户,我最常用的功能是打车费用计算,而常用的原因是这个功能GoogleMap没有。但最近几个版本的百度地图开始让人觉得有些诡异,除了原有的地图展示之外,产品添加了周边打折、优惠、图片分享等多种“特色”功能。简单讲百度地图的产品变重了,重的让人感觉这其实不仅仅是一款地图产品,用户在使用地图类软件的过程中其实目的十分明确的,其他功能的堆砌其实在用户体检角度讲是不合理的。但谁让百度地图,或者说百度的LBS相关事业部承担了百度移动互联网拓展的重要任务呢?

让我们再看百度在移动端的2B业务。

其实在美国,基于云的模式,针对企业级的服务已经非常成熟,每个细分领域都已经了一些不错的公司,这源于美国整个互联网产业的分工明确。有很多人认为2013年中国的移动互联网产业也会开始这样的变革,即之前由销售人员解决的问题交给标准的API/SDK解决,B2D(developer)直接产生现金流。百度目前做的针对开发者的服务涉及开发、运营、推广和变现(原联盟业务),看上去很美好的产业链,但其实开发者对使用这类服务的习惯并没有真正的形成。同时还有一点比较致命的是,百度在很多开发者心里其实未必可以算成是一个公正的第三方,这在很大程度上影响了开发者对这类服务的选择决策。

3、收购是好的解决手段么?

在移动互联网这个方向,百度在资本层面上参与了点讯(现在的百度输入法)、魔图(图片美化)、点心(ROM+系统工具类APP)、ES文件管理器,还有最近炒作的火热的UC。作为一个还算了解点移动互联网投资的从业人员来看,百度做类似的收购其实目的很明确:自有业务补足+扩大用户量,但我们“马后炮”的看后续这些业务的发展,其实并不尽如人意。还有一点值得关注的是,从执行角度看其实百度投资的选择更有一种“就近”的感觉,如点心本就是百度系的团队创业,而ES则是“百度七剑客”王啸的天使投资。

我一直都觉得战略投资一定要明确战略的直接意义,简单讲要够“势利”,同时在中国这个商业环境里,拿战略投资就基本等于站队,而已经站队的人就很难找另外一方谈合作。百度目前还没有开始大规模尝试小规模入股的方式从事投资,更多选择是直接收购,那对于百度来说对团队能力的判断其实在一定程度上要优先于对于项目业务数据的接受。因为收购之后直接面对的就是业务整合,整合的过程其实更多依靠是人和人,部门与部门之间的协调,业务数据只不过是每个季度电话会议上CEO和分析师们的“谈资”罢了。延续这个逻辑,假如真的UC被百度收购,二级市场其实未必就会认可UC的用户价值对于百度移动互联网业务的促进作用。

写在最后

百度作为中国互联网的三巨头之一,其在移动互联网上的发展从现行的效果看可能确实差强人意一些,但这样的局面在慢慢改善。任何一个细分行业的兴起都要经历高投入低产出的初期阶段,而在这样的阶段里其实并没有谁能够说得清楚到底什么是正确的,什么是错误的,不妨让我们给百度移动一些时间,去验证移动互联网时代的“商业崛起”。

(作者系经纬中国分析师)


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