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随着移动智能终端的普及,所有人都相信移动互联网就是未来;而在广告这个细分领域,也会有越来越多的品牌广告主从侧重PC互联网的广告投放转向到侧重移动互联网。但这个看上去是未来发展趋势的移动广告业务模式到最后其实很难逃出巨头吃肉,中小公司喝汤的尴尬局面。

2月20日,美国移动广告平台上市公司 Millennial Media(NYSE:MM)公布了截至12年底的Q4财报;虽然MM在Q4实现了5800万美元的收入和第一次实现单季度盈利,但在公布财报后的交易日其股价暴跌37.5%。我们知道在二级市场上影响股价的因素有很多,但对于这样的暴跌我想不能用非常粗暴的方式把其归咎于MM的营收没有达到预期和MM在Q4全面放弃了移动互联玩该行业内的付费下载类广告业务。在暴跌之外我更想多聊聊类似Admob的现有移动广告平台的商业模式的发展,以及独立的这类移动广告平台存在的价值。

1、类Admob模式的移动广告平台要经历从粗放到精准的发展阶段

大量开发者、大规模智能终端覆盖、以展示量为最核心KPI,或许这些都是类Admob移动广告平台兴起之初所提倡的“核心竞争力”,但面对着广告外的开发者生态崛起、优秀开发者的日渐稀缺,以及广告主越来越“刁蛮”的要求,平台方的经营核心则必须从追求“量”到追求“利”;而更高的利润则就需要更加精准的广告投放,这一点是所有移动广告平台从业者的共识。

看国内的移动广告平台细分类目的发展也依然遵循这一规律,行业兴起之初每家平台方都会频繁的PR宣称自己的平台覆盖了多少多少开发者,总展示量达到多少多少亿;但经历了一段时间的“跑马圈地”之后我们发现大家开始重新审视移动广告的业务模式,“屏幕是否过小,而不适合展示?”“展示之外是否可以根据具体效果进行测算?”“移动广告的重要特性应该是地理位置吧?”。而这样的转变最直接的结果就是移动广告细分行业开始出现分工、出现平台差异,自然也就出现了梯队。

2、寡头垄断看上去是最可能出现的局面

根据IDC的数据统计,在MM上市之前的2011年,整个美国移动广告市场超过60%的份额被前四家公司瓜分,是一个非常典型的强寡头市场;其中Google通过Admob获得了24%的市场份额,MM紧随其后拿到17%的份额,第三名则是苹果的iAd业务。而把时间再往前推2-3年,当时的美国移动广告市场同时有超过30家类似平台在运行;这其中有真正意义上的独立第三方平台,也有来自于互联网广告行业的玩家,同时也还有大公司的业务部门。

这样的局面和今天这个时点的中国移动广告市场何其相似?目前国内在做类Admob模式的广告平台其实在很大程度上已经出现分化/分工;我们耳熟能详的有力美、多盟、有米、哇棒、架势、亿动、Vpon,大家提供的服务开始出现差异化,每家都开始突出自身的特性,比如游戏领域强势、突出LBS等。虽然这些平台之间的竞争不会在短时间出现结果,但毋庸置疑的是在经历了诸如“价格战”、“恶意替换广告代码”、“扣量”、“回扣”等“具有中国特色的”厮杀之后,能存活下来的移动广告平台不会太多;而与此同时,品牌方被教育的也愈发成熟,大的品牌广告方的投放力度会越来越集中在领先的平台上,寡头之势在所难免。

3、成为寡头其实还不是战争的结束

回到文章开头提到的MM的情况,其实二级市场对于MM的不认可在很大程度是由于美国移动广告市场竞争已经不仅仅局限在行业内的玩家中;整个大的泛互联网概念的巨头们谁都不想在这个类目落为人后,正如摩根斯坦利分析师Jordan Monahan所说:“我们之前一直认为,大型互联网公司在移动广告领域的成功的潮流,将带动包括MM在内的小公司一同增长,但我们大错特错了,MM的市场被大型互联网公司蚕食。”这些大的互联网公司包括具有广告技术+移动设备覆盖优势的Google、拥有最强大用户关系且以广告为主要收入来源的Facebook,以及智能设备领导者Apple。

所以悲观的看,即便某家独立公司有幸成为移动广告平台这个细分领域的寡头之一,也会被更大的“巨头”们盯得死死的,或许被收购是最后的出路?巧合的是在MM暴跌之后,路透社传出了Yahoo有意收购MM以提高其广告营收能力,这听上去是个不错的交易……


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